Singapore Real Estate and Property

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Missing owners' condo unit sold for $1.6m

May 3, 2008
Missing owners' condo unit sold for $1.6m
By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

AN UNUSUAL auction of an apartment at King's Mansion off Tanjong Katong Road has
attracted strong bidding - driving up the sale price to $1.59 million, well above
expectations.

The condominium's management corporation had taken the rare step of selling the three-
bedroom property after the owners had disappeared for more than a decade.

The auction, conducted on Wednesday, came after the foreign owners had failed to pay
property fees, which could have run up to $30,000 or more.

The management corporation had tried repeatedly to get in touch with the four owners
and their lawyers - but to no avail.

The sale price was considered fairly strong in a generally weak auction market, analysts
said.

The starting bid for the freehold 1,604 sq ft high-floor unit was $1.18 million, which was
within the guide price of $1.1 million to $1.2 million.

Five bidders chased the price up, with a local businessman succeeding in buying the unit
at $1.59 million, said Knight Frank's auctioneer, Ms Mary Sai.

This price works out to about $991 per sq ft (psf), considerably higher than the starting
bid of $735 psf.

A somewhat larger unit at King's Mansion, at 1,808 sq ft, sold for $1,106 psf a few
months back, according to a caveat lodged in February.

After deducting fees and other expenses, such as costs associated with arranging this
week's auction, the management corporation is expected to keep the rest of the money in
a trust for the owners.

Mystery surrounds why the owners departed the scene and why they have failed to make
themselves known despite publicity prior to the auction.

If they ever do reappear to claim the balance of the sale proceeds, it is likely they will
make a tidy profit.

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CapitaLand CEO sits on paper gain of $2.86m from options

May 3, 2008
CapitaLand CEO sits on paper gain of $2.86m from options
By KALPANA RASHIWALA

CAPITALAND Group president and CEO Liew Mun Leong is sitting on a handsome paper
gain of $2.86 million (based on yesterday's closing price for the counter) after exercising
options for a total of 600,000 CapitaLand shares at an average $2.33 per share on April
30.

The counter closed 30 cents higher yesterday at $7.09.

A filing by CapitaLand to Singapore Exchange yesterday evening gave a breakdown of the
exercise prices of the share options. Mr Liew exercised options for 200,000 shares each at
$1.02, $2.25 and $3.73 each. Following the exercise, his direct stake in the property giant
increased from about 1.832 million shares to 2.432 million shares, or a 0.086 per cent
stake. His deemed interest in CapitaLand remains unchanged at 158,000 shares.

Mr Liew received $6.49 million in pay from the property developer last year, mostly in
bonuses - more than the $5.14 million he earned in 2006.

On top of the $6.49 million pay packet last year, Mr Liew was granted contingent share
awards of some 462,800 CapitaLand shares last year, based on information in
CapitaLand's latest annual report.

The actual number of shares that Mr Liew receives from the share awards last year will
depend on his achieving 'pre-determined targets' over a period of one to three years,
according to CapitaLand.

If 'superior targets' are met, Mr Liew could receive a maximum of 845,000 CapitaLand
shares - nearly twice the 'baseline' number of shares awarded. But if he fails to meet the
targets, no shares will be issued under the awards.

CapitaLand this week posted a 59.3 per cent year-on-year drop in Q1 net profit to
$247.5 million, from $608.1 million in Q1 2007 when the bottom line had been boosted
by a $426.8 million fair-value gain from the sale of 8 Shenton Way.


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World's first US$2b home rising in Mumbai

May 3, 2008
World's first US$2b home rising in Mumbai
400,000-sq-ft marvel across 27 storeys for tycoon's family of 5

(MUMBAI) A 27-storey sea-facing skyscraper coming up in downtown Mumbai will soon
be home to a family of five. With a price tag nearing US$2 billion, it will be the world's largest and most expensive home - ever.

Custom-built: Called Antilla, Mr Ambani's new home will cost much more than a hotel or high-rise of similar size because of its customised measurements and fittings
The proud owner of this property, which will be ready by January next year, is Mukesh
Ambani, head of Mumbai-based petrochemical giant Reliance Industries and the fifth
richest man in the world.

The only remotely comparable high-rise property currently on the market is the US$70
million triplex penthouse at the Pierre Hotel in New York, designed to resemble a French chateau, and climbing 525 feet in the air. The Ambani residence will be 550 feet high with 400,000 square feet of interior space.

Mr Ambani's home costs much more than a hotel or high-rise of similar size because of its customised measurements and fittings, the Forbes magazine reports.

A hotel or condominium has a common layout, replicated on every floor, and uses the
same materials throughout the building, such as door handles, floors, lamps and window treatments. But the Ambani home, called Antilla, differs in that no two floors are alike in either plans or materials used. At the request of Nita Ambani, the tycoon's wife, if a metal, wood or crystal is part of the ninth-floor design, it shouldn't be used on the eleventh floor, for example. The idea is to blend styles and architectural elements so spaces give the feel of consistency, but without repetition.

While visiting New York in 2005, Nita Ambani was in the spa at the Mandarin Oriental New York, overlooking Central Park. The contemporary Asian interiors struck her just so, and prompted her to inquire about the designer.

The Ambanis then consulted architecture firms Perkins + Will and Hirsch Bedner
Associates, the designers behind the Mandarin Oriental, based in Dallas and Los Angeles, respectively.

Antilla's shape is based on Vaastu, an Indian tradition much like Feng Shui that is said to move energy beneficially through the building by strategically placing materials, rooms and objects.

Forbes reported that atop six stories of parking lots, Antilla's living quarters begin at a lobby with nine elevators, as well as several storage rooms and lounges. Down dual stairways with silver-covered railings is a large ballroom with 80 per cent of its ceiling covered in crystal chandeliers. It features a retractable showcase for pieces of art, a mount
of LCD monitors and embedded speakers, as well as stages for entertainment. The hall
opens to an indoor/outdoor bar, green rooms, powder rooms and allows access to a
nearby 'entourage room' for security guards and assistants to relax.

For more temperate days, the family will enjoy a four-storey open garden. The top floors of entertaining space, where Mr Ambani plans to host business guests (or just relax), offer panoramic views of the Arabian Sea.

Mr Ambani plans to occasionally use the residence for corporate entertainment, and the family wants the look and feel of the home's interior to be distinctly Indian; 85 per cent of the materials and labour will come from outside the United States, most of it from India.

Where possible, the designers told the Forbes, whether it's for the silver railings, crystal chandeliers, woven area rugs or steel support beams, the Ambanis are using Indian companies, contractors, craftsmen and materials firms.

Elements of Indian culture juxtapose newer designs. For example, the sinks in a lounge extending off the entertainment level, which features a movie theatre and wine room, are shaped like ginkgo leaves (native to India) with the stem extending to the faucet to guide the water into the basin.

Forbes estimated Mr Ambani's net worth at US$43 billion in March. The couple, who have three children, currently live in a 22-storey Mumbai tower that the family has spent years remodelling to meet its needs.

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Friday, May 2, 2008

Developers vie for top 'green' honours

Business Times - 01 May 2008

Developers vie for top 'green' honours

Keppel Land wins its first platinum for Ocean Financial Centre, slated for completion in 2011

By CHEW XIANG

THE battle for the Green Mark platinum award is heating up.

Last year, City Developments fired the first salvo, claiming two of the seven platinums, the highest rating given out by the Building and Construction Authority for environmental friendliness.

But this year, rival developer Keppel Land has bagged its first platinum for Ocean Financial Centre, a massive 43-storey office block to be built on the site of the present Ocean Building and Ocean Towers. This is also the first given for an office tower, said Tan Swee Yiow, chief executive officer of Singapore Commercial at Keppel Land.

City Developments had won two platinums last year and three more this year - two condominium projects, Cliveden and Solitaire, and the Tampines Grande office building.

But because of its more complex energy needs, getting the Ocean Financial Centre certified platinum was more difficult than for a similar residential tower or commercial building, Mr Tan said in an interview.

'If you want to talk about energy savings, probably the easiest way is to build a lot of concrete walls up. But the challenge is how to make an iconic architectural statement and at the same time achieve energy savings,' he said.

The green features that helped Keppel Land clinch the platinum award could add '5 to 10 per cent' to development cost, said Mr Tan, declining to be more specific because tenders have yet to be called. While the features will not come cheap, Mr Tan said that 'at this moment we can't say that we can charge a premium for its greener features'.

'To us it's a necessity. This is a historical site, so it's very visible and the extra cost is justifiable. Our client mix will also appreciate the features,' he added.

The Ocean Financial Centre is slated for completion in 2011 and will offer 850,000 sq ft of prime office space. It will be a redevelopment of Ocean Building and Ocean Towers, now on the same site.

Ocean Building has already been torn down; some of the debris will be recycled for use in the new building. Ocean Towers will be demolished later to make way for a five-storey car park and grand plaza integrated into the entire Ocean Financial Centre complex.

Mr Tan said that among its extensive energy-saving features was a 400-sq-m roof-mounted solar panel array. Along with efficient lighting panels and air conditioning, this would save nine megawatt hours a year, enough to power a 50,000-sq-m office space.

The complex will also have a roof-top garden and rainwater-harvesting features which could save 42 million litres of water a year, Mr Tan said, enough to fill 21 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

As well, a small chute running down the middle of the tower can be used for waste paper disposal, he said, adding this was an 'in-house' innovation probably not replicated elsewhere as yet, adding there would be sprinklers and safeguards so that a carelessly discarded cigarette butt would not cause an inferno.

The company is aiming to achieve at least Green Mark gold or gold plus ratings for all future projects, he said.



First salvo: The platinum bagged by Keppel Land for its massive Ocean Financial Centre office block is the first given for an office tower. The 43-storey building will be constructed on the site of the present Ocean Building and Ocean Towers



Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.



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JTC offers 1.9ha one-north site for sale

Business Times - 01 May 2008


JTC offers 1.9ha one-north site for sale

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

A COMMERCIAL site slated for mostly office use near the existing Buona Vista MRT Station has been made available for application under the reserve list.

The 1.9-hectare site can yield close to 1.3 million square feet of gross floor area, of which 21,528 sq ft are for ground-floor retail use.

The 99-year site is in the biomedical hub of one-north and is being offered for sale under the Government Land Sale Programme for first-half 2008 by JTC Corporation.

The plot could be worth about $500 million assuming it fetches $400 per square foot of potential gross floor area.

JTC Corp said the plot will be developed into a high-rise commercial building that will provide office space for the business support companies of the research institutes at one-north. The plot is next to a new MRT station that will open under the Circle Line in 2010.

Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han said the development, which will have about one million sq ft net lettable area, will benefit from spillover office demand from the surrounding biomedical facilities, as well as commercial office tenants and government departments relocating out of the Central Business District.

'This is a sizeable investment, so bidders will be the big boys potentially looking at developing a project on a built-to-suit basis for anchor tenants. The end-product will be very suitable for sale to a Reit. It's pretty untested ground, but the plot could fetch about $350-$420 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr). The breakeven cost will be about $1,000 to $1,100 psf of net lettable area,' Mr Han added.

Colliers International managing director Dennis Yeo estimates the site to be worth a slightly higher $400-$500 psf ppr, reflecting a breakeven cost of around $1,200 psf of net lettable area. 'Assuming an average rent of about $7 psf, the net yield will be about 5 to 6 per cent,' he added.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.



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Transitional office site gets top bid of $226 psf ppr

Business Times - 01 May 2008


Transitional office site gets top bid of $226 psf ppr

Offer is 7% below last week's top bid for nearby plot

By ARTHUR SIM

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has closed the tender for a transitional office site at Scotts Road/ Anthony Road - receiving a top bid of $32.99 million.

This works out to be $226 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) for the 97,284.1 sq ft site which has maximum permissible gross floor area of 145,926.2 sq ft.

Four bids were received with the highest bid coming from Sun Venture Investments, a subsidiary of interior design and build firm DB&B Developments Pte Ltd. Its bid was 3 per cent higher than the next highest bid of $32 million from Scotts Development Pte Ltd.

DB&B chief executive Billy Siew Kim Leng said that if it is awarded the site, it intends to lease the building fully. Already, Mr Siew said that it is talking to two potential tenants who may lease the entire building.

While Mr Siew did not say who these might be, a check with the DB&B website reveals that its current clients include ABN Amro Bank and Korea Development Bank.

If awarded, this will be the first development project for DB&B. Still, Mr Siew said this is the normal progression in terms of 'vertical integration' for its business.

He also said he was bullish on the office sector and is setting its sights on a monthly rental of $9.50 psf.

Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han agreed that the site could eventually attract big companies. 'I think corporations would be favourable to an address like this.'

He also said that as long as the locations were good, there would still be developers interested in such sites. 'The entry level is low so it would be good for new developers,' he added.

The potential over-supply of new office space after 2010 is not likely to affect demand for this site either. Savills Singapore director (marketing and business development) Ku Swee Yong said: 'The future supply is likely to be more spaced out than originally expected due to construction delays.'

Even so, Mr Ku estimates that rentals for transitional office space in the Scotts Road area is more likely to be around $7 psf a month.

While the DB&B's bid is about 7 per cent lower than the top bid for the neighbouring transitional office site last week, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak believes it is very likely that the government will award this site to DB&B, 'taking into consideration that this average price of $226 psf ppr is slightly higher than the price paid for the first transition office site at Scotts Road last August'.

He added: 'In an effort to ease the office space crunch, up to now, the government has awarded four transition office sites, which could yield about 650,000 sq ft of office space.'

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.



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Slowdown may stretch into next year: PM Lee

Business Times - 02 May 2008

Slowdown may stretch into next year: PM Lee

For S'pore, much depends on the shape of the US downturn - whether it's V, U or L

By CHUANG PECK MING

(SINGAPORE) To the eternal optimists who think that the Singapore economy will rebound from its lean patch in the months to come, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong offered a sobering projection: he expects the slowdown to continue into next year.

While the economy is on track to hit 4-6 per cent growth this year, Mr Lee sees its momentum slowing in the next few quarters as the United States economy limps along, dragged down by still-unfixed sub-prime mortgage problems.

And whether it's a V-shaped or U-shaped downturn in the US, it could extend the slowdown in Singapore's economy into 2009, Mr Lee told some 1,500 unionists yesterday at a National Trades Union Congress May Day Rally.

'The first quarter is good,' he said. 'Second, third, fourth quarters - prepare ourselves that it will slow down. And the slowdown may last into next year.'

It could be worse if the US falls into an L-shaped economic trajectory - the gloomiest scenario, when there is a severe and extended downturn in the US, like the decade-long recession Japan went into in the 1990s.

'If that happens, then America is in trouble,' Mr Lee said. 'So too Europe, so too Japan. And Singapore will be caught up in this and we will be in serious difficulties too.'

But he noted that most analysts don't think this is on the cards.

The best scenario for the US is a V-shaped downturn - a quick recession followed by a quick rebound - which is also the best scenario for Singapore, Mr Lee said. 'But it is hoping for the best'.

He said the US could easily slip into a U-shaped downturn because its underlying housing problems remain unsolved. The actions taken so far have only postponed the problems into the future.

'The property prices have to go down further,' Mr Lee said. 'When they go down, the banks will have more problems. When the banks have problems, they shrink. That will cause the economy to have more problems.'

In a U-shaped downturn, the bottoming will last longer and the US economy will take some time to sort itself out - perhaps until 2009, according to him.

'This could well happen and then Singapore too will be slowed down significantly,' Mr Lee warned.

'But whatever it is, we have to stay on our guard and stay prepared,' he said. 'Overall, I would expect V-shaped if we are lucky (or a) U-shaped downturn in the US - better plan on that.'

Whatever shape the US downturn takes, Mr Lee said the impact on the Singapore economy will be uneven. Construction, marine engineering, ports and shipyards will be 'all right', according to him.

'Construction will be okay because we have so many things building in Singapore,' Mr Lee said.

'Marine engineering will be okay because the shipyards are doing well. Ports will be okay because the port is highly competitive and bringing in a lot of business.'

But tourism, financial services and perhaps information technology will feel at least some pain.

All this suggests that Singapore's year-on-year economic growth in the coming quarters will fall below the surprisingly strong 7.2 per cent gain estimated for Q1.

'Essentially, Singapore has to be prepared for fairly rough weather ahead,' said Manu Bhaskaran of Centennial Group, a US-based economic consultancy.

He sees a prolonged period of 'meagre' economic growth in the US - and Europe and Japan are not going to take up the slack, because the leading indicators for these two large economies also point to a slowdown, according to him.

Mr Bhaskaran said Singapore has built up some resiliency in its services sector, which puts it in a better position than before to absorb the impact of a US recession. But even then, it remains an open economy and a downturn in the US, Europe and Japan at the same time will hit Singapore.



Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Up to $150k for guaranteed place at Canadian school

May 2, 2008

Up to $150k for guaranteed place at Canadian school

By Jane Ng

ANOTHER international school has announced that it will guarantee places for students in return for up to $150,000, making it the third school to embrace hefty placement fees.

The Canadian International School is hoping to tap into the growing number of companies looking to secure places in good schools for the children of expatriate employees.

Eight per cent of the places at the school will be available under this scheme. It currently has about 1,700 students and will increase the numbers to more than 2,000 by August.

Principal Glenn Odland said the plan was a 'response to market conditions'.

'This programme is designed to allow corporations or individuals, who need to be able to guarantee places for students, to purchase such a guarantee,' said Dr Odland.

This would make it easier for firms to hire senior-level executives who have children of school-going ages.

For corporations, the price of a guaranteed place is $150,000 for the first child and $130,000 for the second.The scheme is open to individuals as well, at $100,000 a child.

The school joins the United World College (UWC) of South-east Asia and Tanglin Trust School, which earlier announced similar plans.

The rising expatriate population is causing a squeeze on places in international schools. The number of foreigners here went up from 798,000 in 2005 to 875,500 in 2006.

Many international schools report long waiting lists.

The Canadian International School has received 30 per cent more applications than there are spaces available for its August intake.

The UWC has 1,000 on the application list for its interim Ang Mo Kio campus, which can take in 440 students, and the average waiting time for its Dover campus is four years.

A Tanglin Trust School spokesman said about 80 of 2,250 places at the school will be taken up by the guarantee scheme, which was launched in January.

The places have been bought by both individuals and companies, and the school has no immediate plans to increase the number of spots.

The UWC, whose guaranteed places are sold only to companies, declined to reveal the exact number of places taken up and would say only that it was 'very pleased with the general level of interest and uptake of the scheme. Demand has exceeded our expectations'.

Not all parents are going for such a scheme though; some are just joining the waiting list early.

Mr Niraj Parekh, 31, an investment banker, registered his then two-month-old daughter Isha at the UWC in November last year. He said it was a matter of being practical.

'The school said it's a first-come-first-served situation, so we take comfort in the fact that we're doing the best that we can for our daughter,' said Mr Parekh, whose spouse Rashmi is a housewife.

Isha will enter the school in 2012 when she turns five.



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Private banks roll out special units targeting mega-rich

May 2, 2008

Private banks roll out special units targeting mega-rich

Individuals with over US$30m in investible assets are moving more wealth to Singapore

By Grace Ng

MORE private banks in Singapore are rolling out new special units to cater to Asia's super wealthy - a lucrative but largely under-served segment.

Banks observe that the region's mega-rich, who have well over US$30 million (S$41 million) in investible assets each, are moving more wealth to Singapore.

They do this to diversify their wealth beyond traditional ultra-high net worth banking hubs like Switzerland and Hong Kong.

The super wealthy grew in number to well over 17,500 in 2006 across the Asia-Pacific region, up 12 per cent from the previous year, according to a Capgemini/Merrill Lynch report.

While there is no official data for the amount of assets ultra-rich clients booked in Singapore, one senior banker reckons growth rates may be anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent for some banks last year.

Ultra-high net worth clients in Asia who book assets in Singapore are largely entrepreneurs from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, China and India. Banks say this is a particularly lucrative segment as the clients require a wide range of services, from investment banking to asset management.

They also tap the banks' expertise in key areas such as setting up a family office, a private company that manages investments and trusts for a wealthy family, as well as in specialised lending, private equity and philanthropic advisory service, said Mr Rajesh Malkani, head of Standard Chartered Bank's (Stanchart's) private bank in South-east Asia.

Singapore trusts are becoming popular, with many ultra-high net worth clients using these for estate planning, he added.

One sign that Singapore is increasingly becoming popular as a booking centre for the super wealthy is that banks here are setting up dedicated units and teams to serve them.

New players, such as Australia-based Macquarie, which is purely focused on clients with at least US$30 million in investible assets, recently made Singapore its regional wealth management base.

Other niche players already in the country, such as Pictet & Cie, mostly serve clients with at least US$100 million already with the bank.

Just a few months ago, Stanchart, which set up its private banking headquarters in Singapore in July last year, saw the need to set up a 'specific ultra-high net worth proposition', said Mr Malkani.

He said the growth of this segment had 'exceeded expectations', as Stanchart's private bank was able to tap its large base of relationships with entrepreneurs who had been using its expertise and network in Asia, Africa and the Middle East for decades.

Major banks acknowledge that they have not focused enough resources on Asian clients in the past, so this segment is still under-served in Singapore.

Citi Private Bank relocated Mr Akbar Shah to Singapore less than a year ago to head its mega-wealth division in the Asia-Pacific, setting up a new team to serve clients with a net worth of more than US$250 million each.

The team had been operating in Hong Kong for many years, but Citi decided it was time to use Singapore as another base.

'Many of these clients are from Indonesia and other South-east Asian countries, but there are also several Middle Eastern and European investors who are more keen to explore business opportunities in Asia and are also looking to place part of their liquid assets here,' said Mr Shah.

Citi's rivals are matching its moves.

UBS has a dedicated 'competency centre' in Singapore to create services and products just for its ultra-rich clients.

Credit Suisse is on the lookout for senior bankers to help it 'sharpen its penetration for ultra-high net worth clients', said Dr Francois Monnet, the head of private banking for South-east Asia and Australasia.

The margins earned from serving ultra-rich clients may be thin - thinner than for those in the high net worth segment, say bankers.

The average size of each transaction or trade, however, is considerably larger, said Citi's Mr Shah. So banks stand to earn hefty revenues from just one transaction for an ultra-high net worth client.

graceng@sph.com.sg


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WHERE THE WEALTHY COME FROM

'Many of these clients are from Indonesia and other South-east Asian countries, but there are also several Middle Eastern and European investors who are...looking to place part of their liquid assets here.'

MR AKBAR SHAH, who was relocated to Singapore to head Citi's mega-wealth division in the Asia-Pacific

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Temp office site in Newton draws four bids

May 2, 2008

Temp office site in Newton draws four bids

By Joyce Teo

A TENDER for a second temporary office site on Scotts Road and Anthony Road has attracted less interest than the first site adjacent to it.

Temporary sites are being offered for development as offices as part of efforts to ease an office space crunch.

Sun Venture (S) Investments, a development and property asset management company owned by interior design firm DB&B, put in a bid of nearly $33 million.

This price translates to $226 per sq ft (psf) of gross floor area, which is about 7 per cent lower than UOB Kay Hian's recent bid of $242.50 psf for the first transitional plot at the same location.

Nevertheless, these bids remain above the top bid of $219 psf for an earlier transitional site in the area - Scotts Spazio, which is just across Scotts Road - that was released in August last year.

The second plot on Scotts Road and Anthony Road has a size of 97,284 sq ft and, like the first, comes with a 15-year lease. The other bidders were Scotts Development ($219 psf), Centurion Scotts ($171 psf) and Hersing Corporation ($157 psf).

All four also participated in last week's tender for the other transitional plot, which attracted eight bids. Sun Venture was the second highest bidder in that tender, with a bid of $208 psf.

Last week's tender would have weeded out those who could not pay, said Cushman & Wakefield's managing director, Mr Donald Han.

The Government has now offered four transitional office sites, which would yield about 650,000 sq ft of space, said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy.

Office rents have shot up significantly on tight supply in the past two years, though growth has slowed.

Separately, the Government has made available a commercial site in one-north for application. Developers who are keen have to commit to a minimum bid before the site can be put up for sale.

If triggered, the fairly large plot - it allows for a total gross floor area of 1.29 million sq ft - could attract bids of between $300 psf and $400 psf, said Mr Han.



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The shape of things to come

the shape of things to come

Friday • May 2, 2008

The United States economy dodged an outright contraction in the first three months of the year, but its 0.6-per-cent growth announced early yesterday was so weak that it helped convince the Federal Reserve, just hours later, to cut its key policy-making interest rate by another quarter point, to 2 per cent. This is the seventh cut in as many months to the interest that banks charge each other for short-term loans. Lowering the Fed funds rate is meant to spur growth by reducing the cost of everything from credit card borrowing to business loans.

In Singapore, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the US economy is "probably bordering on recession". Speaking at the annual May Day Rally, he warned that the shape of the US downturn was important. Addressing unionists, he painted three scenarios for the US economy and offered his take on how the chips might fall for Singapore's export-reliant economy.

V-shaped A mild recession in the first half of the year, with growth "back on track" in the later months – this is what the US Federal Reserve is projecting. Such a short-lived downturn is the "best scenario for the US, and also for Singapore", said Mr Lee.

U-shaped With the "underlying problems" of the US housing market yet to be solved, property prices will plunge further, causing "more problems" for the banks. The spiralling effect would "shrink" the banks and affect consumer spending, further depressing housing prices and causing "more serious difficulties" to emerge. Said Mr Lee: "The actions taken have been bold but they haven't solved the fundamental problems. They have only postponed the problems ... to give more time to manage and massage it away." As a result, it could be into next year before the US economy sorts itself out and Singapore would be "loaded down significantly", he warned.

L-shaped The worst-case scenario, but also the least likely, said Mr Lee. Such an extended and severe downturn – similar to what Japan experienced in the 1990s – would drag down other major economies and cause Singapore "serious difficulties". Added Mr Lee: "Fortunately, most analysts don't think this is on the cards."

"Overall, I would expect a V-shaped downturn – if we are lucky – or a U-shaped downturn in the US. We had better plan (based) on that." – PM Lee Hsien Loong


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Slowdown could stretch to 2009; Singaporeans should be prepared, says PM Lee

As storm clouds loom ...

Slowdown could stretch to 2009; Singaporeans should be prepared, says PM Lee

Friday • May 2, 2008

Loh Chee Kong
cheekong@mediacorp.com.sg

IT WAS, by all accounts, a stellar first quarter economic performance by Singapore — job creation was at a high while flash growth estimates of 7.2 per cent beat expectations.

However, rather than set the stage for another year of expansion, the Prime Minister yesterday delivered the Government's most bearish outlook thus far.

Despite the "good" first quarter expansion, Mr Lee Hsien Loong did not once hint at exceeding the full-year growth forecast of 4 to 6 per cent. Instead, he warned Singaporeans to "prepare ourselves" for a slowdown that "may last until next year".

Speaking at the May Day Rally yesterday, he reiterated the impact of a double whammy of economic uncertainty and rising costs of living on the Republic, points he had raised in his May Day message a day earlier.

"So far, Singapore has been all right. But looking forward, a lot will depend on the US and global economy," he said (see sidebar).

While the construction, marine engineering and port sectors "would be okay", he said, other sectors such as finance, tourism and information technology could be "seriously affected" by the impending recession in the United States.

"It will not be even but there will be impact," said the Prime Minister. "This is one major uncertainty affecting our economy."

Urging employers and workers to ensure that "any built-in wage increases are sustainable", Mr Lee said: "If the companies are still doing well, reward the workers with higher variable bonuses. Keep it flexible; just in case things turn wrong, you don't have to disappoint the workers and take back something which has already been given."

On its part, the Government has been "focused" on the welfare of low-wage workers, said Mr Lee, who revealed that the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) central committee were "very seized" by the plight of such workers in a recent closed door, "no-holds-barred" dialogue.

"For two hours, we spoke about nothing else except low-income workers," said Mr Lee, adding that there are "no shortcuts" — for example, legislating minimum wage or "shutting out" imported labour — to a common problem facing countries around the world.

While challenges lie ahead, Mr Lee was confident of Singapore's approach: Building tripartite relationships, educating and training Singaporeans, helping industries innovate and assisting needy Singaporeans through a social safety net. "Our approach is working, so we must persevere," he added.

On top of the Workfare Income Supplement scheme and the one-off Growth Dividends, the Government, and the NTUC, have been investing in continuing education and training, including efforts in job recreation, skills upgrading and getting contract workers on board the Central Provident Fund system.

As inflation sets in and prices of daily necessities surge, NTUC has also given out discount vouchers to low-income households, said Mr Lee, adding that the Government would continue to work on helping this group of Singaporeans "patiently".

Stressing that it was vital that the Government not only "do more but do it right", he added: "Don't go for wayang (for show) and grandstanding, issuing statements but not being accountable for results. Show the results."

Many unionists admitted to Today that workers were "very concerned" about how the Singapore economy would fare in the months ahead.

Still, Mr Jeffery Fung, 40, a member of the Singapore Airport Terminal Services Workers Union, said it was comforting to know that measures were in place to mitigate the impact of the impending economic slowdown.

Mr Mariappan, a 54-year-old technical

engineer with Jurong Shipyard, felt that unions ought to lobby harder for workers to get a pay rise, in order to cope with the rising cost of living. Still, the vice-chairman of the Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Employees' Union conceded: "It would be more difficult given the slowdown, but if the company is doing well, why not?"

Mr Lee, however, stressed that the challenge of helping low-wage earners must be seen in its proper context, as the "majority of Singaporeans are doing well".

Said the Prime Minister: "Household

incomes have increased across the board. The unemployment rate is very low ... and the employment rate is at a record high. We've never had so many Singaporeans working ever before, in spite of all the foreign workers here."

He added: "In fact, I would say this: We have the foreign workers here, and that's why our economy has grown, that's why the companies are here. That's why Singaporeans have jobs in such big numbers."

Dwelling on some Singaporeans' resistance towards the influx of foreign workers in the Mandarin portion of his speech, Mr Lee stressed that the country was facing a manpower shortage, and "not that we have too many workers". For instance, the two integrated resorts are expected to create an

additional 20,000 jobs.

Citing measures such as the foreign worker levy and limits on the proportion of foreign workers companies can hire, Mr Lee said he hoped that Singaporeans would "look at the contributions of foreign workers objectively".

He added: "They are not here to steal our jobs but to help us enlarge the economic pie."


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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Income, not interest, led to property boom

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008

Income, not interest, led to property boom

(SINGAPORE) The recent climb enjoyed by equity and property prices was driven more by strong economic growth than by low interest rates, according to a study by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

Empirical research by MAS shows that economic activity exerts a larger influence on asset prices in Singapore than borrowing costs.

'Asset price inflation reflects an underlying increase in income growth augmented in part by favourable sentiment towards domestic assets,' says the study, featured in the MAS macroeconomic review report released yesterday.

The MAS report also says: 'This linkage has been misunderstood by some analysts, who expressed concern that the increase in domestic liquidity, in and of itself, has fuelled the run-up in asset prices.'

Private housing prices increased by 31.2 per cent for 2007 as a whole, and some market analysts had felt that the central bank should raise interest rates to rein in property inflation.

This was because while overseas investors were driving property prices up, the inflow of foreign funds continued to add to domestic liquidity and kept borrowing costs low.

But as the MAS report mentions, 'the factors behind the increase in liquidity are much more complex in view of Singapore's monetary policy framework'.

Domestic interest rates have dropped since September last year as US interest rates fell and the Singapore dollar grew stronger.

The benchmark three- month domestic interbank rate fell by 144 basis points from August 2007 to 1.31 per cent at the end of March 2008.

As interbank rates fell, banks also started offering cheaper and more innovative mortgage packages.



Price dynamics: Asset price inflation reflects an underlying increase in income growth augmented in part by favourable sentiment towards domestic assets, says the study


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URA releases two more GLS sites

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008


URA releases two more GLS sites

By ARTHUR SIM

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has released two more residential sites through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. And while interest is expected to be good, profit margins for developers will be slimmer.


A 1.08 ha site at Woodleigh Close, with a maximum permissible gross floor area of 30,167 sq m (324,714.5 sq ft), is up for sale via the GLS confirmed list. Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han reckons the potential profit margin for a developer could be about 12 per cent.

This is based on a land price of $350-$380 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr), factoring in construction costs and an estimated selling price based on current project launches. In the vicinity, Mr Han says Parc Mondrian and Blossoms at Woodleigh are going for $700-$850 psf. Noting that profit margins were 30-40 per cent until the effects of the US sub-prime crisis and global credit crunch took hold late last year, Mr Han said: 'In bad times, profit margins can fall into single digit figures.'

The point, however, is that profit can still be made. 'It's a matter of who can control costs better,' he said. 'Construction companies can control costs better, so for them, even a baseline profit margin of 8 per cent is feasible.'

Reflecting market volatility, Knight Frank director (research and development) Nicholas Mak believes the land price for the Woodleigh site could be $300-$370 psf. 'If the market turns bearish within the next two months, the bids will be at the lower end,' he said. He expects four to eight bidders will take part in the tender, including major developers.

URA has also released detailed sale conditions for a 2.08 ha reserve list site in Upper Thomson Road, close to Bishan Park and Lower Peirce Reservoir Park, for residential development. The site has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 43,758 sq m (471,006.7 sq ft).

Mr Han said new projects in the area are going for about $850 psf. Factoring in construction costs and a developers' profit of 10-12 per cent, he expects bids to be $380-$400 psf ppr.

Separately, the Housing and Development Board has made available a reserve list site at Sengkang East Avenue and Buangkok Drive for an executive condominium. The 17,000.8 sq m site has a permissible gross floor area of 51,002.4 sq m.

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Year of uneven growth, price worries ahead

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008


Year of uneven growth, price worries ahead

MAS says financial services, IT sector vulnerable but core activities insulated from US

By ANNA TEO

(SINGAPORE) Global headwinds have gathered speed in recent months, but domestic and regional support should prevent the Singapore economy from sliding into a sharp downturn in 2008, says the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

While it still expects Singapore's GDP growth to come in at around 4-6 per cent this year, 'barring a sharp downturn in the US economy', the central bank says the economic outlook in 2008 will vary significantly from industry to industry, with certain sectors more vulnerable to the US downturn.

And in the event of a protracted US recession, along with a widespread decline in global and regional economic activity, Singapore's growth will be more severely hit, as even the more resilient activities will not go unscathed, MAS warns in its latest Macroeconomic Review. In any case, even in the baseline scenario, Singapore's growth momentum is expected to ease from its double-digit sequential pace in Q1 over the next few quarters.

Advance estimates based only on January and February data have the Singapore economy growing almost 17 per cent in Q1 over the preceding Q4 2007. In year-on-year terms, the flash Q1 GDP growth was a robust 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown this year, after four years of above-7 per cent growth, will bring the economy closer to its potential output path, with the output gap narrowing markedly by 2009, MAS says. The economy has racked up a positive output gap, having expanded above its 4-6 per cent medium-term trend potential over the last four years.

MAS remains broadly optimistic about Singapore's growth outlook, as a good 30 per cent of the economy - core activities such as construction, marine transport and pharmaceuticals - are relatively insulated from the US.

Another big core of activities, accounting for some 37 per cent of GDP, enjoy strong domestic and regional support. But even these sectors - transport hub services, tourism-related activities, business services - would be affected if the US downturn deals Asia a tough hand.

But the most vulnerable to a US and global downturn are 'sentiment-sensitive' financial services such as the wealth advisory, equities, brokerage and treasury markets, as well as the IT-related cluster. They account for about one-third of the economy.

And while the growth outlook is a little murky, inflation remains the bigger concern, with further upside risks to global oil and food prices. MAS expects inflation in Singapore to stay high in 2008 'due to a confluence of external and domestic factors'.

Consumer price inflation could average above 6 per cent in the first half of 2008, and ease to about 4 per cent in the second half, partly as the GST hike effect wears off, it estimates.

'On a sequential basis, inflation should moderate over the rest of the year and come closer to its historical average rate of increase of 0.3 per cent,' it adds. MAS expects the 2008 inflation rate in the upper half of the 4.5-5.5 per cent forecast range, with underlying inflation - minus private accommodation and private road transport - coming in at 3.5-4.5 per cent.

The central bank also reiterates that its latest monetary policy decision to re-centre the policy band will help to ease inflation pressures and provide support to the economy as it slows to a more sustainable growth pace.

The half-yearly Macroeconomic Review also cites empirical evidence of first signs of a 'weak synchronicity' in economic activity between the US and Asia - as opposed to a full decoupling.

Latest trade data, it says, suggest there is some short-term substitution as regional exporters seek out opportunities in the growing China and Middle East markets to partially offset the drag in US demand.

One economist who was a little surprised by the MAS' latest assessments is HSBC Bank's Robert Prior-Wandesforde - he reckons the central bank is a bit hopeful about the inflation forecast for the year. He thought the 4.5-5.5 per cent inflation forecast range should have been revised up, and that the economy would quite easily hit the top end of the 4-6 per cent GDP growth forecast.



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More flatted-factory leases terminated in Q1

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008

PROPERTY
More flatted-factory leases terminated in Q1

23% of firms cited poor business as a factor for termination: JTC

By ARTHUR SIM

TERMINATION of leases of JTC flatted-factory space, which is supported by manufacturing and services, hit 37,000 sq m in the first quarter of 2008 - 22 per cent higher year on year and 14 per cent higher quarter on quarter.

According to JTC's quarterly facilities report for Q1, gross allocation of flatted-factory space, at 63,100 sq m, was 9 per cent down quarter on quarter but 122 per cent up year on year.

Net allocation was positive for a fourth straight quarter, though growth, at 28 per cent, was lower than in the preceding quarter.

JTC's report also shows that 23 per cent of companies cited 'poor business' as a factor for termination, up from 7 per cent in Q4 2007. Only 35 per cent cited 'consolidating operations', compared with 54 per cent a quarter earlier.

Termination of ready-built facilities, which include flatted factories, increased 13 per cent year on year to 51,100 sq m.

But net allocation of ready-built facilities was six times higher year on year at 38,400 sq m, though this was almost 50 per cent down from the preceding quarter.

Overall occupancy increased 1.3 percentage points, raising the overall occupancy rate for ready-built facilities to a record 93.9 per cent.

Net allocation of technopreneur increased a modest 100 sq m in Q1. Demand was 12,900 sq m, while supply was unchanged at 15,100 sq m.

Gross allocation of business park space was 5,800 sq m, or 19 per cent lower year on year. Termination was 2,500 sq m, or 2 per cent lower year on year. As a result, net allocation was 3,300 sq m.

Gross allocation of standard factory space rose to 10,500 sq m while termination was flat at 2,300 sq m, resulting in net allocation of 8,200 sq m.

For stack-up factory space, demand and supply remained largely unchanged in Q1. Net allocation was 800 sq m. Gross allocation was 9,700 sq m while termination was 8,900 sq m.

Net allocation of prepared industrial land was 8 per cent lower quarter on quarter but 20 per cent higher year on year.

A larger proportion of gross allocation of prepared industrial land in Q1 was for manufacturing and supporting sectors.

The service and chemical sectors contributed 59 per cent and 22 per cent respectively to total gross allocation.

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Plans for $200m hotel in S'pore Sports Hub shelved for now

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008


Plans for $200m hotel in S'pore Sports Hub shelved for now

Analysts believe business decision is behind the move

By VINCENT WEE

(SINGAPORE) Plans for a $200 million hotel in the new Singapore Sports Hub appear to have been canned, even though preferred bidder Singapore Sports Hub (SSH) consortium said options to build the hotel at a later stage remain open.

Genting International, which was in discussions with the consortium about the proposed hotel, said in an announcement yesterday that it has 'discontinued discussions with the consortium for the proposed construction of the hotel as it has been informed that the Singapore Sports Council (SSC) has decided not to have a hotel in the Singapore Sports Hub at this point in time'.

A Genting spokesman declined to comment beyond saying that 'the ball now lies in their court' regarding the proposal.

This is the first time news has broken that the hotel option would not be included in the deal. SSC did not respond by press time.

SSH consortium head Ludwig Reichhold said the proposed hotel was only an option and was 'not confirmed' at the time of bidding. 'We are busy finalising the main contract with them now and as things were already running ahead with the main contract, negotiating more with the hotel factored in would have delayed the work,' he added.

Analysts believe a simple business decision is behind the move. While there have been reports of strong demand for rooms, there are also a lot of hotels in better locations coming up in the years ahead. The floor area available could be much better used as retail space.

Hotels are a bit more complicated to run than retail and office space, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak pointed out. Sharply fluctuating rates and branding and operational costs all add to the business risks. In the end, they need to make a 'balanced decision', he said.

The Sports Hub, whose construction was originally scheduled to begin last year, is already running late.

According to reports, the reason for the delay is that the paperwork for the nearly $2 billion public-private partnership project has not been completed. The latest sudden revelation suggests that more work is in store.

Earlier reports estimate the completion date will stretch from the end-2010 original date to at least 2012.

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US home values plunge sharper than apparent: mortgage market pioneer

Business Times - 30 Apr 2008

(BEVERLY HILLS) The man credited with developing the financing of the modern US mortgage industry says home values have fallen more than their listed prices suggest but they could hold steady with the help of a bill in Congress.

'I think the actual price declines are bigger than the indexes are showing, since so little is being sold,' Lewis Ranieri, CEO of Ranieri & Co, said in an interview on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Global Conference.

Credited as the 'father' of the market for bundling mortgages and selling them on Wall Street as debt investments, Mr Ranieri backs a bill by US Representative Barney Frank, a Democrat from Massachusetts, that would make lenders accept losses on teetering home loans in exchange for government guarantees.

'What he is trying to do is part of what really needs to be done,' he added.

Mr Frank's bill would allow the Federal Housing Authority to insure US$300 billion of home loans. Lenders would erase some of the original loan amount and could even loosen loan terms in order to win the government backstop.

'At this point in the crisis, those of us who are practitioners would take what we can get. I wouldn't turn down less! Because we need a re-performing programme, which is what in effect the Frank bill is.' Mr Ranieri said the key to success for lenders was keeping people in their homes and his main concern was to make sure that the relief targeted lower- and middle-income families buying homes to live in rather than helped investors.

The inventory of homes for sale swelled by 40,000 to 4.06 million homes in March, or a 9.9 months' supply at the current sales pace from 9.6 months in February, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Meanwhile, the median national home price declined 7.7 per cent from a year ago to US$200,700.

Mr Ranieri, who helped create the mortgage 'securitisation' market while at Salomon Brothers, also favours new regulation of those involved in selling loans.

From mortgage brokers selling loans to home buyers to Wall Street banks who sold the securitised bundles of mortgages to investors, no one in the mortgage industry had a legal duty to work in the best financial interests of the person taking out the loan, he said.

That is in contrast to Wall Street rules on selling appropriate products to investors. 'The whole system could sell (a) person the biggest investment he ever had, his house, in an inappropriate structure, and it was fine. It makes no sense. It is on its surface patently nuts,' he said. – Reuters



Relief for families: Mr Ranieri says the key to success for lenders is keeping people in their homes


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US home vacancies rise to record 19 million on foreclosures

April 30, 2008

US home vacancies rise to record 19 million on foreclosures

BOSTON - A RECORD 18.6 million homes in the United States stood empty in the first quarter, as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosures.

The figure is 5.7 per cent higher than a year ago, when 17.6 million properties were vacant, the US Census Bureau said in a report on Monday.

The vacancy rate - the share of homes empty and for sale - rose to 2.9 per cent, the highest since the bureau started keeping count in 1956. About 2.3 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 2.2 million a year earlier, the report said.

New foreclosures have risen to an all-time high, led by defaults in adjustable-rate loans to people with poor or limited credit histories, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Home price declines and tougher lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind on their mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans.

Falling values are also encouraging buyers to delay purchases in the hope of getting a better deal.

The median US home sale price may drop 5.8 per cent this year, the most on record, followed by another 4.7 per cent decline next year, Fannie Mae, the world's largest mortgage buyer, said on April 7.

'We think it is unlikely that prices will begin to stabilise until vacancy rates start declining,' Mr Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a report on Monday for clients.



MORE EMPTY NESTS: The declines in home prices and stricter lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind on their mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans. -- PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS



BLOOMBERG NEWS


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CCT defers office plans for carpark

April 30, 2008

VOLATILE MARKET CONDITIONS

CCT defers office plans for carpark

CAPITACOMMERCIAL Trust (CCT) is deferring its planned redevelopment of Market Street carpark into a $1 billion to $1.5 billion premium office building due to volatile market conditions.

The plan was announced early this year amid concerns that the carpark crunch in Raffles Place is worsening. Now, a decision will be made not earlier than mid-2009, said the trust's manager yesterday.

'Taking into consideration the significant size of this project, rising construction costs and the present volatility in financial markets, the manager is carefully evaluating the financial viability of the funding structure for the redevelopment,' said its chief executive, Ms Lynette Leong.

In early January, CCT was granted provisional planning permission for the redevelopment - conditional upon the trust paying a development premium for changing the use of the 58,964 sq ft site from a carpark to an office tower.

This is to be assessed by the chief valuer. A second condition is that there will be no extension of the site's existing leasehold land tenure.

Ms Leong said the deferment would give CCT time to plan and develop a sustainable architectural plan for the building.

She said a decision to redevelop will take into account the amount of development premium payable.

JOYCE TEO



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Three S'pore residential plots up for sale in quiet market

April 30, 2008

Three S'pore residential plots up for sale in quiet market

One exec condo site and two 99-year leasehold suburban sites open for bids

By Joyce Teo

BUYING interest in private homes may be relatively low now, but the Singapore Government is offering developers three new residential sites to consider buying.

Two are 99-year leasehold suburban sites, and the other is an executive condominium site.

The first - in Woodleigh Close - is seen as an attractive site by property consultants, as it is a short walk from the Potong Pasir MRT station and the yet-to-be-opened Woodleigh MRT station.

Developers can build 260 to 290 apartments on the 1.08ha site, which has a maximum gross floor area of 30,167 sq m.

Property consultants expect the site to attract bids of $300 to $370 per sq ft (psf) of gross floor area. The apartments may then sell for between $800 psf and $880 psf, they said.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said the site is close to the city and amenities in the Potong Pasir HDB estate and Upper Serangoon Road.

'It is likely to be a popular location, as two freehold projects in the vicinity - Blossoms @ Woodleigh and Parc Mondrian - launched last year were fully sold,' said Mr Li.

Recent caveats lodged for the 240-unit Blossoms @ Woodleigh have hovered between $770 psf and $922 psf.

The 100-unit Parc Mondrian sold for between $650 psf and $720 psf last April.

The tender for the Woodleigh Close site will close on June 24. The site is on the confirmed list, where sites are put up for sale on specific dates.

But the second site in Upper Thomson Road, close to Bishan Park and Lower Peirce Reservoir Park, is on the reserve list.

This means that it will be put up for sale only if a developer commits to a minimum bid acceptable to the authorities.

The site is not near any MRT station, but it is in an established private estate.

A developer could build 380 to 420 apartments on the 2.08ha Upper Thomson Road site, which can have a gross floor area of 43,758 sq m.

To attract buyers, developers may want to consider developing a condo with eco-friendly features, which is in line with the surrounding serene environment, said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy.

If triggered, this site could attract bids of $200 psf to $240 psf of gross floor area, and the apartments could sell for $650 psf to $700 psf, he said.

The third site, in Sengkang, is a 17,000 sq m executive condo site on the reserve list.

This 99-year leasehold site is the third executive condo site the HDB has made available for sale in the first half of this year.

The other two are in Jurong West and Yishun Avenue 11.

joyceteo@sph.com.sg


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOOD LOCATION

'It is likely to be a popular location as two freehold projects in the vicinity...launched last year were fully sold.'
MR LI HIAW HO, CBRE Research executive director, who adds that the Woodleigh Close site is close to the city

EXTRA FEATURES



To woo buyers, developers may want to consider a condo with eco-friendly features on the Upper Thomson Road site, said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy.


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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

More attractive to buy home instead of renting

More attractive to buy home instead of renting

Home loan borrowers benefit from falling interest rates



MARCEL LEE PEREIRA



WITH interest rates sliding,now could be a good time to move out of that rental apartment and get your own home.



Taking a home loan at a lower interest rate could translate into paying less than what you fork out in rent now, and getting the property under your name too, said consumer moneylender GE Money, which offers a range of consumer finance products such as personal and car loans, but not home loans.



Speaking to my paper on responsible borrowing in a climate of low interest rates and a strong Singapore dollar, GE Money’s chief marketing officer, Mr Alok Kumar, said: “It does make sense to buy property now because interest rates are low.



“If you haven’t considered taking a housing loan, now is the time to consider that, because cash flow will make better sense today due to the lower interest rate and lower outflow.”



This is an option because the Singapore Inter-bank Offered Rate (Sibor) is on a downward trend, he said. Sibor, the rate at which banks lend to one another, is a key component used in setting home loan rates. It tends to track the United States Federal Reserve funds rate, which has been slashed in recent weeks.



The three-month Sibor has declined by more than one percentage point, from 2.38 per cent at the start of the year to 1.31 per cent at end-March. It dipped even further to just 1.25 per cent last week. Said Dr Chua Hak Bin, a strategist at Deutsche Bank’s Private Wealth Management: “It’s an attractive time to borrow. There is still a chance that the interbank rates might move lower because the market expects the Fed to continue cutting rates.”



But GE Money’s Mr Kumar said that consumers should also take a long-term view and understand the long-term risks.



He said: “You can afford a loan today but, if the interest rate goes up four years later, do you see your earnings also going up? Will you be able to service the loan then?”



A DBS spokesman said that with lower interest rates now, customers would benefit from home loan packages that are pegged to benchmarks like Sibor, where it truly reflects the movements in interbank rates.



“However, one would also need to consider the purpose of the purchase,” said the spokesman.



“For example, if the property is meant for owner occupation, then the consumer should take a longer-term view on the housing loan.”



Besides, one does not buy a property just because of low interest rates, said UOB economist Ho Woei Chen.



“You also have to consider other things like housing prices now, and what you think the property market will be like going forward,” she said.



Mrs Lynn Ong, 32, who lives with her husband and three children in a rented house in Upper Thomson, is hoping to buy a house within the next six months, as her rent has just gone up from $3,000 to $5,000 a month.



“Lower interest rates mean I can get the most out of my money. Instead of paying rent, you service a mortgage,” said Mrs Ong, a contract adviser.



“It makes more sense that you put money into something that belongs to you.”



On the stronger Singapore dollar, Mr Kumar believes that investment in shares and funds traded in US dollars would provide higher returns.



“There are no clear low-hanging fruits that you can grab unless it’s US dollar-denominated investments,” he said.



“But general prudence about spending and borrowing still prevails even in this environment.”



marcelp@sph.com.sg

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Will property hunters hit jackpot?

Will property hunters hit jackpot?

Some are buying Marine Parade flats, speculating MRT station will be here

TALK about planning ahead.

By Desmond Ng


29 April 2008

TALK about planning ahead.

News of the Eastern Region MRT Line was released only three months ago and the location of its 12 stations have yet to be announced.

The line is expected to be completed only in 2020, a good 12 years away.

But some property hunters are already hoping to cash in by speculating on the location of one of the stations at Marine Parade.

They are buying up flats in the area in anticipation of possible capital and rental gains.

The line will connect Changi to Marina Bay via Marine Parade.

The coffee-shop talk is that the station will be built at the former Marine Parade Community Library site near Parkway Parade shopping mall.

This site is now occupied by an NTUC FairPrice outlet.

Housing agents contacted by The New Paper said that since the Land Transport Authority (LTA) announcement in January, some flats there have been snapped up by locals and Singapore permanent residents hoping to cash in.

Some buyers have anticipated that prices of flats nearest the MRT station will appreciate when the station is up and running, said housing agent Victor Lee.

He said these buyers were just guessing where the proposed station would be and 'are buying to invest, either to sell at a higher price or for good rentals when the station is ready'.

He said he has received a few calls enquiring about flats in the area.

'I know some units around that area have been sold partly based on that speculation. But this area has always been popular, whether or not there's an MRT station here.

'People like this area for the proximity to East Coast Park, the sea and Parkway Parade.

'The new MRT station will definitely be a bonus, of course,' said Mr Lee.

Housing agent Sam Lew of ERA, who specialises in that area, said that since the estate is quite small, it's not difficult to pin down where the station is likely to be.

Said Mr Lew: 'It should be in the central area because it's near Parkway Parade, the market and all the other HDB blocks there. That's the only piece of land that can logically accommodate an MRT station.'

PRICE INCREASE

He said there has been a slight price increase for flats there since the MRT line was announced, but this was muted partly because of the economic uncertainty and slowdown in en-bloc activity.

He estimated the price increase was about 5 per cent.

Said Mr Lew: 'The market has slowed down considerably because of the sub-prime issues. In the past, it took us about a month to sell a three-room flat. But now it'll take us about three months instead.'

The 21-km, 12-station line will extend to the residential estates of Tanjong Rhu, Marine Parade, Siglap, Bedok South and Upper East Coast which are currently not served by theMRT.

NOT FAR OFF

And those who speculate on the Marine Parade station may not be far off the mark with their predictions based on density factors.

For an MRT station to be commercially viable, several conditions need to be considered, said transport economist Michael Li of the Nanyang Business School.

These include future population growth, the catchment of the existing human traffic there and the density of the area, which includes residential, commercial and retail developments.

He said: 'Generally, if the property is near an MRT station, the value will appreciate and the rental will be good. But in this case, the timing of the construction could be many years later especially if the network is planned for year 2020.

'Some of these home-buyers may be there for the initial gains. They may get rid of their flats quickly to the next buyer while the news is still hot.'

When contacted, LTA said the site of the proposed Marine Parade station had not been determined yet.

The alignment of the line and station location will be determined only upon completion of the engineering studies, it said.

STUDIES TAKE YEARS

Said an LTA spokesman: 'Such studies typically take several years to complete because we need to ensure that the subsequent construction works are carried out properly and safely, with minimal inconvenience to commuters as well as businesses and residents along the (Eastern Region) line.'

Mr Eric Cheng, HSR's executive director, said he had heard rumours about an upcoming MRT station there about two years ago.

But he warned against buying property based on such rumours.

Said Mr Cheng: 'Consumers should ask for black-and-white proof that the MRT station is really going to be at that location because they'll be paying a premium for the place based on those rumours.

'The loss could be a fair bit if the station turns out to be somewhere else. Marine Parade Road is quite long. Things could change.'



Will property hunters hit jackpot?
Some people are speculating that the new Marine Parade MRT station will be at the side occupied by the NTUC FairPrice outlet.



Copyright © 2005 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Co. Regn. No. 198402868E. All rights reserved.


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Older UK homes weather market strains better

Business Times - 29 Apr 2008

Older UK homes weather market strains better

Personal finance website expects property prices to fall 20% this year

(LONDON) Houses bought four years ago or more are best placed to weather the property market downturn, research shows.

Personal finance website Fool.co.uk expects property prices to tumble 20 per cent this year, taking the average British property value to £153,400 (S$416,000) from £196,000 - the same level as spring 2004 levels.

That means that, on average, people who have bought since then will be sitting on a capital loss.

Not all, however, will face negative equity, as some will have taken out a mortgage of less than 100 per cent or more of the purchase price.

'It is vital to differentiate between capital loss and negative equity,' said David Kuo, head of personal finance at Fool.co.uk.

'While a capital loss is beyond the control of homeowners, mortgage borrowers can overcome negative equity by reducing the size of their outstanding mortgage compared to the value of the property.'

He added that falling house prices were not 'disastrous', as they would narrow the gap between the value of a property and those further up the housing ladder, making up-sizing more affordable.

The West Country is most vulnerable to a property downturn, while those in Scotland and Ireland are the least so, the figures show, as prices there have more than doubled in the past four years, compared to a 20 per cent increase nationally.

House prices have been falling on a monthly basis since the end of last year as the credit squeeze has exacerbated affordability pressures after a decade-long boom.

The downturn appears to be gathering pace. Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, said house prices fell last month at their fastest pace since 1992 when the country was in the grip of recession.

The Bank of England unveiled an ambitious plan this week to swap banks' hard-to-trade mortgage assets for government securities in a bid to cushion the economy from the global credit squeeze.

It has also cut interest rates three times since December.

Its scope to deliver further rate cuts, however, is being limited by rising price pressures. -- Reuters



House-hunt: Home prices have been falling monthly since the end of last year as the credit squeeze has exacerbated affordability pressures after a decade-long boom

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Allgreen Q1 profit plunges 65%

Business Times - 29 Apr 2008

Allgreen Q1 profit plunges 65%

Company cites US sub-prime crisis as a factor, says property market was subdued

By EMILYN YAP

ALLGREEN Properties yesterday posted net earnings of $17.5 million for the first quarter ended March 31 - a 65 per cent slump from $49.6 million in the same period last year.

Earnings per share plunged 66 per cent to 1.10 cents, from 3.28 cents in Q1 2007. And in similar fashion, revenue sank 52 per cent to $87.9 million, mainly due to a drop in development income.

Citing the US sub-prime crisis as a factor, Allgreen said the property market was subdued, which led to lower number of transactions in the residential sector.

'In view of the slowdown, the group held back launching residential projects,' it said. But landed properties launched at Pavilion Park, Bukit Batok saw good take-up.

The saving grace for Q1 was investment property revenue, which improved from Q1 2007 due to higher rents from offices, serviced apartments and retail space. Revenue from Traders Hotel also rose as a result of higher room rates.

But costs and expenses were up sharply. Finance cost increased 51 per cent from a year earlier due to borrowings for investments in China and Vietnam and land purchases in Singapore.

Other operating expenses soared 79 per cent, mainly due to higher depreciation and an 'unrealised exchange loss arising from US-dollar transactions in respect of investment in Vietnam'.

Despite the lacklustre first quarter results, Allgreen said it expects to be profitable in 2008, as it forecast when it issued its 2007 results.

According to Allgreen yesterday: 'The property sector saw a decline in transactions in Q1 2008 and this is likely to extend into Q2. However, we expect a pick-up in activity in the second half of 2008.'

Allgreen's stock closed three cents higher at $1.33 yesterday, with with more than 2.2 million shares changing hands.

Analysts are divided on the company's prospects. In the past month, CIMB-GK has anticipated it will 'underperform', while DBS Vickers and UBS have called a 'buy' on the shares.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Biggest drop in 3 years in British house prices

Business Times - 29 Apr 2008

Biggest drop in 3 years in British house prices

(LONDON) UK house prices fell the most in more than three years in April as a dearth of credit and concern that the property slump is deepening deterred prospective homebuyers, Hometrack Ltd said in a statement yesterday.

The average cost of a home in England and Wales dropped 0.6 per cent - the most since December 2004 - to £173,100 (S$468,300), the London- based research company said in a statement. Prices declined 0.9 per cent from a year earlier.

A surge in borrowing costs has prompted banks to withdraw their best mortgage offers, worsening the housing decline. Falling home prices are sapping consumer confidence and held economic growth to the slowest pace since 2005 in the first quarter.

'Weak confidence is effectively resulting in a 'buyers strike',' Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said. 'The current downward pressure on prices will only start to be reversed once there is a turnaround in buyer confidence' that will 'revolve around greater stability in the financial markets and an improved economic outlook'.

The report is based on a survey of 3,500 real estate agents and surveyors, calculating average values using judgments of achievable prices rather than sale prices alone. Prices fell in all 10 of the regions Hometrack follows. East Anglia and the West Midlands led declines, with a 0.8 per cent drop. Prices in London, home to 1-in-8 of the UK population, fell 0.7 per cent.

The findings add to evidence that the housing slump is deepening. House prices declined 2.5 per cent last month, the most since 1992, according to HBOS Plc, the largest UK mortgage lender. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' measure of sentiment in the UK housing market fell to the lowest since records began in 1978.

Mortgages approved by banks fell 46 per cent in March from a year earlier to the lowest level since 1997, the London-based British Bankers' Association said last Wednesday. The Bank of England is due to publish estimates of mortgage advances by all lenders today at 9:30am in London.

Falling property prices make Britons feel less wealthy and reduce the amount of equity owners can tap for spending. A threefold increase in home values over the past decade has helped the UK economy expand for 63 quarters.

The slump has put the economy on course for its worst performance in 16 years, with the International Monetary Fund predicting growth of 1.6 per cent this year. Growth was 0.4 per cent in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said last Friday.

The Bank of England, backed by the Treasury, last Monday offered to swap around £50 billion in government bonds for mortgage-backed securities in an effort to kick-start lending.

Higher money-market funding costs are making lenders reluctant to pass on three Bank of England interest rate cuts since last December to homeowners. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc have led writedowns among UK banks on securities tied to US sub-prime mortgages. Losses worldwide total almost US$309 billion. -- Bloomberg



Sign of the times: House prices in London, home to 1-in-8 of the British population, fell 0.7% in April

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Asia - some bright spots amid challenges

Business Times - 29 Apr 2008


Asia - some bright spots amid challenges

Asia expected to weather real estate downturn

By EMILYN YAP

THE mood was generally subdued at a property conference held by Citi yesterday although a few positive assessments of the market provided some bright spots.

Opening the event, Citi country officer Piyush Gupta said that 2007 was a strong year for property across Asia but the first quarter of this year had been challenging.

Property indices are under-performing the broad market in several regional cities, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, he said.

Amid this broad picture however, it is not all doom and gloom. Banyan Tree executive chairman Ho Kwon Ping pointed out that the US sub-prime crisis and the resulting credit crunch have so far had minimal impact on the high-end hospitality business.

In fact, having just returned from a roadshow in the Middle East to promote the group's Indochina hospitality fund, Mr Ho said that investors' reception was positive.

According to him, there has been no perceptible slowdown in the hotel business, though travel within the US has probably come down.

'Even the sale of branded residences by us this year has increased several-fold over the last year,' said Mr Ho, as buyers probably see them as a relatively attractive form of alternative investment.

Citi's real estate research team also reckoned that there are some worthwhile investment real estate plays, despite the market slowdown, in the form of real estate investment trusts (Reits).

An April 25 Citi report on Singapore property says: 'We believe news flow for developers will remain negative and are hence putting a cap on developers' performance. Suntec, Ascendas, Parkway Life and Capitamall Trust are our preferred buys among Reits.'

Ending yesterday's media session on a hopeful note, Citi's Asia-Pacific director of research Adrian Faure said that although Asia will not be immune from the sub-prime crisis, it is in good shape to weather the real estate downturn, underpinned by low loan-deposit ratios and strong liquidity.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Slowdown looks unlikely in China

Business Times - 29 Apr 2008

Slowdown looks unlikely in China

Urbanisation, desire for better housing will put pressure on prices: think tank

(BEIJING) China's real estate market will not see a major slowdown in 2008 despite Beijing's intensified efforts to cool excessive price rises, the top government think-tank said in a report published yesterday.

Urban property prices rose less rapidly in March than in the first two months, and the property outlook index, which covers price and investment trends, continued to decline in March after peaking in November.

But the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said that it was still premature to draw the conclusion that the market was heading south.

'Although transaction volumes have been declining in some cities since 2007 and more buyers are now waiting on the sidelines, that does not necessarily indicate the approach of a turning point,' it said in a report summarised by the official China Securities Journal.

China's urbanisation and residents' desire for better housing, compounded by the scarcity of land and the government's tightened grip on land supply to curb investment, would put continued pressure on prices in the long run, it said.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, also said recently that upward pressure on property prices would increase in the second quarter as more people put their money in property to avoid the erosion of returns faced by bank deposits.

CASS said that inflows of speculative capital from overseas would increase during the remainder of the first half of the year, as investors sought shelter from global economic turbulence and bet on continuing appreciation of the yuan.

To brake increases in property prices, Beijing would continue its tightening campaign, including by curbing land supply and loan growth and giving further policy incentives aimed at increasing the supply of more affordable housing, it said.

CASS said the government also needed to curb the hoarding of land by developers, raise the downpayment requirement for second homes, which is currently 40 per cent, and start to levy a general property tax. -- Reuters




Still going up: Inflows of speculative capital from overseas would increase during the first half of the year, says think tank

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