New engines drive Singapore's property market but pitfalls remain

August 9, 2008
Challenges for property sector
New engines drive Singapore's property market but pitfalls remain,
reports KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE Singapore property market has weathered the storm from the US sub-
prime crisis, soaring oil prices and overall inflation, pretty well.

Runaway increases in property values in the high-end residential and
prime office sectors seen in the past couple of years, for instance,
have started to ease. But they have not dived, and panic has not set
in, at least not so far.

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng says: 'To some, this
is a welcome breather from the breakneck pace of increases recorded
in the last 24 months.'

CB Richard Ellis chairman (Asia) Willy Shee too observes: 'The
overall market has displayed some resilience. In the office market,
there's still demand for office space with occupiers still looking to
pre-commit office space in yet-to-be completed buildings.' While the
private housing market is not as buoyant as last year, transaction
volumes have picked up in second quarter this year with encouraging
sales from mid and mass-market projects, he adds.

Market watchers feel that in the short-term, property values could
head south, driven by near-term fundamentals. However, the mid-term
prospects for Singapore's real estate sector are generally considered
sound. As a major developer puts it: 'Population growth, global and
regional wealth creation, sustained government investment in
infrastructure, the perennial sharpening of Singapore's competitive
edge, limited land, security and political stability,
internationalisation of the property market - all these must be good
for Singapore real estate prices in the long run.'

The Remaking of Singapore has helped create sound fundamentals for
the local property market. The government's decision to break from
the past and go ahead with developing two integrated resorts with
casinos as well as its efforts to position Singapore as a leading
contender in the race among global cities to attract wealth and
talent have boosted the island's prominence on the radars of
international property investors.

New engines for growing the Singapore economy have also been put in
place and this to some extent may also help shield the island and its
property market from the full impact of what's happening in the US.

Investments and job creation from the IRs, Sports Hub, expansion
plans for rail network and other infrastructure projects, Singapore's
policy of welcoming foreign talent to its shores, and the strategy of
positioning Singapore as a hub for various industries - financial
industry/wealth management, tourism, education and healthcare - are
expected to provide momentum for Singapore's economy.

'The IRs, F1, Sports Hub and Youth Olympic Games surprised observers
who think that Singapore is only a clean and safe place to do
business but never a place where you can let your hair down,'
observes Knight Frank's Mr Tan.

'What do these initiatives mean to savvy investors? They mean that we
are perceptive in discerning changes in the global world, have the
will to question old assumptions and have the courage to move a
population to accept initiatives that can be potentially divisive.

'That the government and its people can move together to tackle
challenges ahead demonstrates the inherent strength of the country as
a global city to do business and a place to live,' Mr Tan added.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah said: 'Wealth management
industry is still a very big thing here. Wealth from high networths
in Asia - China, India - is flowing into Singapore. With IRs and the
F1 race, Singapore is being marketed as a playground for the rich and
famous. Family offices and philanthropy are fast being added to the
suite of services offered by private bankers.

'The removal of estate duty has been a major boost to Singapore's
ambitions to be a wealth management hub.'

* New challenges

But the road ahead for the local property market is paved with
challenges. Colliers International director of research and advisory
Tay Huey Ying argues that the 'mid-term optimism for the Singapore
property market is underpinned by the IRs and the Marina Bay
Financial Centre (MBFC). 'If these projects do not deliver,
confidence may be shaken,' she warns.

To be considered successful, the IRs will have to be able to
continuously attract visitors year after year and not fizzle out
after the initial novelty wears off. Similarly, the MBFC can be truly
considered an achievement for Singapore's aspirations to be a leading
financial centre if the movement of tenants into MBFC does not create
a vacuum in existing office buildings that can't be filled within a
short span of time; otherwise, it may just show there's not that much
depth in Singapore's financial industry, Ms Tay reckons.

In the residential property market, a short-term challenge that could
materialise is if substantial numbers of home buyers who've purchased
private homes on deferred payment schemes in the past few years begin
to panic and dump their properties as the projects' completion dates
loom closer. That would be the time when these buyers have to pay the
bulk of the purchase price to developers, and if some of them think
they may have difficulty finding home loans, especially if they are
still holding on to several such units, they may panic and dump their
properties at lower than current market prices.

Such a scenario would be a house hunter's dream, but could destroy
wealth for the majority of Singaporeans who already own their own
homes.

'Instead of subjecting themselves to panic selling, these property
owners may wish to bear in mind Singapore's mid-term prospects and
should try to hold their properties by securing a financing package
or a tenancy for their property,' Ms Tay suggests.

* Escalating construction costs

Escalating construction costs are another big concern going
ahead. 'The high construction costs could translate into high
purchase cost for buyers and investors of private property assets as
well as contribute to inflationary pressure for end-users of public
infrastructure,' says CBRE's Mr Shee.

'The high construction costs would also eat into developers' profit
margins and hence reduce the incentive for developers to undertake
new projects or acquire sites from the Government Land Sales
programme,' he adds.

On the macro political front, Knight Frank's Mr Tan says an immediate
challenge is the confluence of unstable political situations in three
neighbouring countries - Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia (which will
have a election next year). 'Put simply, we're a good property in a
bad neighbourhood,' he said.

CBRE predicts that office rentals are approaching a peak. The average
monthly Grade A rental value rose to $18.80 per square foot in Q2
this year, an increase of 43.5 per cent from the same period last
year. With completions of major office projects from 2010, including
MBFC Phase 1 and 50 Collyer Quay, the property consultancy group
predicts the average Grade A office rental will ease to $12-15 psf
post-2010.

On a more optimistic note, it highlights that with all the new office
developments coming up, a significant amount of future office stock
will constitute world-class modern Grade A buildings. 'Around 64 per
cent of the office completions in the next five years will be Grade A
quality,' Mr Shee says.

For the private residential sector, CBRE has said a correction of
residential prices to the tune of 5 to 10 per cent in the second half
of this year is likely as the global economy suffers the continued
onslaught from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and inflation.

* Riding the turbulence

Colliers' Ms Tay highlights the importance of a sound government land
supply policy - 'not just short-term reactions' - will help the local
property market to ride out the challenges ahead.

'For individual home buyers and sellers, they should arm themselves
with the right information instead of succumbing to herd instinct or
following their emotions,' she adds.

Knight Frank's Mr Tan says: 'Demand for real estate is dependent on
economic prospects. With strong economic fundamentals, I have no
doubt that interest in real estate in Singapore by local and foreign
institutional investors will return once the current market turmoil
blows over.

In similar vein, CBRE's Mr Shee says: 'Fundamentally, the long-term
development of the office, retail, residential and hospitality
sectors will not change in spite of the present global financial
worries.

'It was all these government initiatives that attracted a fresh wave
of foreign investment into Singapore in the last 24 months, and it
will be these developmental drivers that will continue to attract
investment from various parts of the world to Singapore.'