Business Times - 31 May 2008
Sub-prime crisis could knock Japan into recession
(TOKYO) The sub-prime crisis is far from over and a slowdown in the US economy could help knock Japan into recession, Stephen Roach, the Asia chairman of US investment bank Morgan Stanley, said yesterday.
'I would not rule out the possibility of renewed recession in Japan,' Mr Roach said at a seminar hosted by Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. 'I'm a believer in globalisation, not a believer in decoupling. You've gotta pick one. You cannot have it both ways.' Mr Roach said that the global credit crisis stemming from troubles in the US sub-prime loan market had just started 'Stage Two' of a 3-stage process that will likely see a deeper impact spreading from the US to other economies.
He pointed to data showing the US consumer spent about US$9.6 trillion last year, or six times the combined spending of consumers of China and India, to underscore the influential role the US economy still plays in driving global growth.
He said that the worst of 'Stage One' of the credit crisis that primarily hit financial markets may have passed, marked by the failure of Bear Stearns in mid-March and the provision of liquidity by the US Federal Reserve.
Stage Two will see troubles in the financial market having a real impact on the US economy, Mr Roach said.
'Stage Two is only now just underway. The asset dependent sectors of the US economy, especially US consumption, are only just starting to adjust. There's plenty more to come.' 'Stage Three has barely begun. The linkages through trade flows, through capital flows, through information flows, through labour flows between the US and the rest of the world. These are the linkages of globalisation.' - Reuters
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Bank loans grow at slowest pace in a year
Business Times - 31 May 2008
Bank loans grow at slowest pace in a year
(SINGAPORE) Singapore bank loans grew at its weakest pace in a year in April as lending to businesses slowed, providing new signs that sluggish global demand could drag on the economy.
Bank loans in April rose 0.6 per cent to $251.1 billion in April from $249.5 billion in March, the central bank said yesterday, the slowest monthly growth since April 2007 when loans grew 0.2 per cent.
Loans to businesses fell across most industries from manufacturing to financial institutions, although the weakness was offset by the construction industry where loans grew 3.2 per cent.
Most analysts expect loan growth in Singapore to slow this year as a looming US recession slows Asia's economies.
'Business activity is definitely slowing down. It could be an initial sign of slower growth,' said Kit Wei Zheng, a Citigroup economist.
From a year ago, total loans rose nearly 25 per cent from $201.8 billion, mostly boosted by construction where lending grew 1.5 times. The industry has boomed in the past year, supported by the construction of two casinos worth around US$7.7 billion.
Analysts estimate that loan growth at the South- east Asian country's three banks, DBS Group, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank is expected to slow to 12-13 per cent this year after expanding 20 per cent in 2007.
However, economists said a recovery in the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for mortgage loans, would ease the squeeze on banks' profit margins. The rate fell to 1.1875 in April, its lowest level in more than four years.
Loans to manufacturers fell 1.2 per cent in April to $11.1 billion from March, while lending to financial institutions declined by 3.6 per cent.
Housing and bridging loans to consumers rose 0.5 per cent to $74.6 billion despite a slowing property market, although Citigroup's Mr Kit said the increase was probably not a result of new transactions but buyers paying off purchases closed previously under a deferred payment scheme\. \-- Reuters
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bank loans grow at slowest pace in a year
(SINGAPORE) Singapore bank loans grew at its weakest pace in a year in April as lending to businesses slowed, providing new signs that sluggish global demand could drag on the economy.
Bank loans in April rose 0.6 per cent to $251.1 billion in April from $249.5 billion in March, the central bank said yesterday, the slowest monthly growth since April 2007 when loans grew 0.2 per cent.
Loans to businesses fell across most industries from manufacturing to financial institutions, although the weakness was offset by the construction industry where loans grew 3.2 per cent.
Most analysts expect loan growth in Singapore to slow this year as a looming US recession slows Asia's economies.
'Business activity is definitely slowing down. It could be an initial sign of slower growth,' said Kit Wei Zheng, a Citigroup economist.
From a year ago, total loans rose nearly 25 per cent from $201.8 billion, mostly boosted by construction where lending grew 1.5 times. The industry has boomed in the past year, supported by the construction of two casinos worth around US$7.7 billion.
Analysts estimate that loan growth at the South- east Asian country's three banks, DBS Group, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank is expected to slow to 12-13 per cent this year after expanding 20 per cent in 2007.
However, economists said a recovery in the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for mortgage loans, would ease the squeeze on banks' profit margins. The rate fell to 1.1875 in April, its lowest level in more than four years.
Loans to manufacturers fell 1.2 per cent in April to $11.1 billion from March, while lending to financial institutions declined by 3.6 per cent.
Housing and bridging loans to consumers rose 0.5 per cent to $74.6 billion despite a slowing property market, although Citigroup's Mr Kit said the increase was probably not a result of new transactions but buyers paying off purchases closed previously under a deferred payment scheme\. \-- Reuters
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Those tunnelling vibes are ‘to be expected’
Those tunnelling vibes are ‘to be expected’
Weekend • May 31, 2008
Zul Othman
zul@mediacorp.com.sg
VIBRATIONS are rattling your home and there is underground tunnelling work going on nearby for the construction of an MRT line. Should you be worried?
While such vibrations are “to be expected”, especially where tunnel boring machines cut through hard rocks, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) has assured Singaporeans living in the vicinity of these sites, that safety measures here are comparable with those adopted internationally.
All tunnelling works are monitored “round the clock” by an array of instruments. And as a further safeguard, workers are also stationed at ground level “to keep a close watch”.
The authority was responding to Today’s queries reflecting questions raised by some Singaporeans after the road cave-in at Cornwall Garden. But before any tunnelling work is undertaken, the residents will be notified and their concerns addressed.
“In all our tunnelling works, a project communications team, comprising LTA’s staff and our contractor’s engineers, engages the residents and other stakeholders in the vicinity of the works,” said an LTA spokesperson.
“The project communications team explains the nature of the works and is always on-hand to address stakeholders’ concerns,” he added.
And if further clarifications are needed, they can always call either the contractor’s or LTA’s hotline at 1800-2255-582 (1800 CALL-LTA).
The Cornwall Garden road cave-in has been a hot topic among residents living in areas where new MRT lines are being built.
Last week, an 8m by 7m stretch of road disappeared into 3m-deep crater. No one was hurt in the accident, which occurred above a tunnel boring machine where works were taking place for the train line connecting the new stations at Holland Village and Farrer Road.
Nonetheless, the authority would like to assure residents near new MRT lines that this tunnelling method is a “relatively safe operation with manageable level of risks and is still the most efficient and effective way of constructing tunnels”.
It is also necessary, added the spokesperson. “Underground land transport infrastructure is still the most effective way to optimise our dense landscape,” he said.
Copyright MediaCorp Press Ltd. All rights reserved.
Weekend • May 31, 2008
Zul Othman
zul@mediacorp.com.sg
VIBRATIONS are rattling your home and there is underground tunnelling work going on nearby for the construction of an MRT line. Should you be worried?
While such vibrations are “to be expected”, especially where tunnel boring machines cut through hard rocks, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) has assured Singaporeans living in the vicinity of these sites, that safety measures here are comparable with those adopted internationally.
All tunnelling works are monitored “round the clock” by an array of instruments. And as a further safeguard, workers are also stationed at ground level “to keep a close watch”.
The authority was responding to Today’s queries reflecting questions raised by some Singaporeans after the road cave-in at Cornwall Garden. But before any tunnelling work is undertaken, the residents will be notified and their concerns addressed.
“In all our tunnelling works, a project communications team, comprising LTA’s staff and our contractor’s engineers, engages the residents and other stakeholders in the vicinity of the works,” said an LTA spokesperson.
“The project communications team explains the nature of the works and is always on-hand to address stakeholders’ concerns,” he added.
And if further clarifications are needed, they can always call either the contractor’s or LTA’s hotline at 1800-2255-582 (1800 CALL-LTA).
The Cornwall Garden road cave-in has been a hot topic among residents living in areas where new MRT lines are being built.
Last week, an 8m by 7m stretch of road disappeared into 3m-deep crater. No one was hurt in the accident, which occurred above a tunnel boring machine where works were taking place for the train line connecting the new stations at Holland Village and Farrer Road.
Nonetheless, the authority would like to assure residents near new MRT lines that this tunnelling method is a “relatively safe operation with manageable level of risks and is still the most efficient and effective way of constructing tunnels”.
It is also necessary, added the spokesperson. “Underground land transport infrastructure is still the most effective way to optimise our dense landscape,” he said.
Copyright MediaCorp Press Ltd. All rights reserved.
$17m widening of CTE to begin on Monday
May 31, 2008
$17m widening of CTE to begin on Monday
1st phase to last till end-2009, but delays to traffic will be minimal
By Maria Almenoar
WORK will begin on Monday to widen the Central Expressway (CTE), but officials say the construction will cause minimal delays on Singapore's busiest thoroughfare.
The Land Transport Authority (LTA) will add a fourth lane on both sides of a 1.5km stretch between Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 and Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3.
The work, which will cost $16.9 million, is scheduled to last till the end of next year. The LTA said for most of that time, the expressway's six lanes will remain open.
However, it will close after 11pm on some nights for repaving and to remove an overhead pedestrian crossing.
This is the first phase of a plan to ease congestion on the CTE, which is plagued by traffic jams during morning and evening peak periods.
The Ministry of Transport hopes the work, together with the opening of the Circle Line, Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway and North-South Expressway, will ease congestion on the north-south stretch.
The LTA also plans to expand another 5.5km section of the CTE from the Pan-Island Expressway to Yio Chu Kang Road by 2011.
As part of the project, a new sheltered overhead bridge - replacing the old uncovered bridge - will be built to connect Housing Board blocks with the Serangoon Gardens private estate.
To keep the racket down, the LTA will use noise reduction blankets on its hoardings and put noise guards on machinery.
The authority will also use, for the first time, a more costly method of installing pipes running under the roads.
Unlike the usual 'cut-and- cover' method, where motorists have to be redirected to their lanes, the pipes are laid underground without the need to tear up lanes.
mariaa@sph.com.sg
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved. Privacy Statement & Condition of Access
$17m widening of CTE to begin on Monday
1st phase to last till end-2009, but delays to traffic will be minimal
By Maria Almenoar
WORK will begin on Monday to widen the Central Expressway (CTE), but officials say the construction will cause minimal delays on Singapore's busiest thoroughfare.
The Land Transport Authority (LTA) will add a fourth lane on both sides of a 1.5km stretch between Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 and Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3.
The work, which will cost $16.9 million, is scheduled to last till the end of next year. The LTA said for most of that time, the expressway's six lanes will remain open.
However, it will close after 11pm on some nights for repaving and to remove an overhead pedestrian crossing.
This is the first phase of a plan to ease congestion on the CTE, which is plagued by traffic jams during morning and evening peak periods.
The Ministry of Transport hopes the work, together with the opening of the Circle Line, Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway and North-South Expressway, will ease congestion on the north-south stretch.
The LTA also plans to expand another 5.5km section of the CTE from the Pan-Island Expressway to Yio Chu Kang Road by 2011.
As part of the project, a new sheltered overhead bridge - replacing the old uncovered bridge - will be built to connect Housing Board blocks with the Serangoon Gardens private estate.
To keep the racket down, the LTA will use noise reduction blankets on its hoardings and put noise guards on machinery.
The authority will also use, for the first time, a more costly method of installing pipes running under the roads.
Unlike the usual 'cut-and- cover' method, where motorists have to be redirected to their lanes, the pipes are laid underground without the need to tear up lanes.
mariaa@sph.com.sg
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved. Privacy Statement & Condition of Access
Finally, they get to drive their cars out
May 31, 2008
Finally, they get to drive their cars out
A FAMILY was finally able to take its cars out for a spin yesterday, a week after the vehicles were marooned when a section of Cornwall Gardens collapsed.
The cave-in, a result of underground work on the Circle Line, left a 3m-deep hole that measured 8m by 7m. The collapse severed water pipes and phone lines and made it impossible for the Sperlings to get their cars out of the driveway.
Housewife Jane Sperling told The Straits Times yesterday: '(Works crews) finished the road last night and we were able to drive our cars out of the garage for the first time this morning.'
She added jokingly: 'We drove by very quickly to avoid falling into another hole.'
Mrs Sperling and her husband stayed at Shangri-La Hotel for two nights and returned home only on Monday.
A Land Transport Authority (LTA) spokesman said underground tunnelling work on the Circle Line had loosened soil on that stretch.
Water, phone and Internet links have since been restored. The road has been filled in and one lane has been reopened to traffic.
The LTA said it will continue inspection and underground works.
To avoid being trapped again, the Sperlings will park their cars outside their house for now.
Finally, they get to drive their cars out
A FAMILY was finally able to take its cars out for a spin yesterday, a week after the vehicles were marooned when a section of Cornwall Gardens collapsed.
The cave-in, a result of underground work on the Circle Line, left a 3m-deep hole that measured 8m by 7m. The collapse severed water pipes and phone lines and made it impossible for the Sperlings to get their cars out of the driveway.
Housewife Jane Sperling told The Straits Times yesterday: '(Works crews) finished the road last night and we were able to drive our cars out of the garage for the first time this morning.'
She added jokingly: 'We drove by very quickly to avoid falling into another hole.'
Mrs Sperling and her husband stayed at Shangri-La Hotel for two nights and returned home only on Monday.
A Land Transport Authority (LTA) spokesman said underground tunnelling work on the Circle Line had loosened soil on that stretch.
Water, phone and Internet links have since been restored. The road has been filled in and one lane has been reopened to traffic.
The LTA said it will continue inspection and underground works.
To avoid being trapped again, the Sperlings will park their cars outside their house for now.
Raffles Hotel won't be sold after all
May 31, 2008
Raffles Hotel won't be sold after all
Consortium that inked in-principle deal declines to say why sale fell through
A PLAN to sell the historic Raffles Hotel again has fallen through.
The Business Times (BT) yesterday reported that a consortium led by former Credit Suisse banker Mark Pawley, which had inked an in-principle deal to buy the hotel earlier this month, was 'very disappointed' with the outcome.
Its spokesman confirmed that the deal was off.
'This would have involved an assured distinct identity for Raffles Hotel as a flagship for Singapore in the international hospitality industry and a rejuvenation of the hotel,' the paper quoted her as saying.
Citing confidentiality clauses, she declined to give reasons why the deal soured.
But she denied that there was any issue with the source of the funding, which is believed to be a family trust linked to a European family.
If the deal had gone through, the 121-year-old historic hotel and its adjoining shopping arcade would have changed hands for the second time in three years.
The agreed price was reportedly about $650 million - more than triple the $200 million paid by its American and Middle Eastern owners in 2005.
This was seen as a reflection of the strong boost in demand for hotel space in Singapore in recent years, with the country's fast-growing visitor arrivals.
Mr Pawley is the chief executive of Singapore-based Oxley Capital Group, a private investment house focusing on real estate and private equity.
While he was head of the Asian real estate, gaming and lodging business at Credit Suisse Investment Banking in Asia, he was involved with the $1.7 billion sale of the entire Raffles Holdings' hotel portfolio - including Raffles Hotel in Singapore - to United States-based private equity firm Colony Capital in 2005.
Colony later merged that portfolio with Fairmont Hotels & Resorts' assets to create Fairmont Raffles Hotels International (FRHI). Colony reportedly holds about a 40 per cent stake in FRHI, while Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's Kingdom Hotels International owns the rest.
On May 8, FRHI announced that it had reached an in-principle agreement to sell off Raffles Hotel. But as with its past real estate transactions, any hotels sold would continue to be part of the company's hotel collection.
FRHI's hotel management arm, Raffles Hotels & Resorts, also secured a long-term management contract to manage the hotel, reportedly for 40 years.
Market watchers told BT that most existing hotel groups would think twice about buying a hotel with a long-term management contract from the seller. They speculated that this clause might have scuppered the deal.
Raffles Hotel won't be sold after all
Consortium that inked in-principle deal declines to say why sale fell through
A PLAN to sell the historic Raffles Hotel again has fallen through.
The Business Times (BT) yesterday reported that a consortium led by former Credit Suisse banker Mark Pawley, which had inked an in-principle deal to buy the hotel earlier this month, was 'very disappointed' with the outcome.
Its spokesman confirmed that the deal was off.
'This would have involved an assured distinct identity for Raffles Hotel as a flagship for Singapore in the international hospitality industry and a rejuvenation of the hotel,' the paper quoted her as saying.
Citing confidentiality clauses, she declined to give reasons why the deal soured.
But she denied that there was any issue with the source of the funding, which is believed to be a family trust linked to a European family.
If the deal had gone through, the 121-year-old historic hotel and its adjoining shopping arcade would have changed hands for the second time in three years.
The agreed price was reportedly about $650 million - more than triple the $200 million paid by its American and Middle Eastern owners in 2005.
This was seen as a reflection of the strong boost in demand for hotel space in Singapore in recent years, with the country's fast-growing visitor arrivals.
Mr Pawley is the chief executive of Singapore-based Oxley Capital Group, a private investment house focusing on real estate and private equity.
While he was head of the Asian real estate, gaming and lodging business at Credit Suisse Investment Banking in Asia, he was involved with the $1.7 billion sale of the entire Raffles Holdings' hotel portfolio - including Raffles Hotel in Singapore - to United States-based private equity firm Colony Capital in 2005.
Colony later merged that portfolio with Fairmont Hotels & Resorts' assets to create Fairmont Raffles Hotels International (FRHI). Colony reportedly holds about a 40 per cent stake in FRHI, while Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's Kingdom Hotels International owns the rest.
On May 8, FRHI announced that it had reached an in-principle agreement to sell off Raffles Hotel. But as with its past real estate transactions, any hotels sold would continue to be part of the company's hotel collection.
FRHI's hotel management arm, Raffles Hotels & Resorts, also secured a long-term management contract to manage the hotel, reportedly for 40 years.
Market watchers told BT that most existing hotel groups would think twice about buying a hotel with a long-term management contract from the seller. They speculated that this clause might have scuppered the deal.
Wheels come off Raffles Hotel deal
Business Times - 30 May 2008
Wheels come off Raffles Hotel deal
Proposed sale to consortium fails to materialise
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The proposed sale of Raffles Hotel is off.
A spokeswoman for the consortium led by former Credit Suisse banker Mark Pawley that was to have bought the Singapore icon confirmed yesterday: 'We regret to say that the sale will not be completed as planned. The consortium is very disappointed with the current outcome as we had hoped for a win-win solution involving all parties.
'This would have involved an assured distinct identity for Raffles Hotel as a flagship for Singapore in the international hospitality industry and a rejuvenation of the hotel. We will continue to actively explore other opportunities to contribute to Singapore.'
She declined to give reasons for the deal not being completed, citing confidentiality clauses. The deal was reported to have been in the range of about $650 million and would have included the adjoining shopping arcade. But when asked about talk that there might have been some issues with the source of the money for the purchase, she replied strongly: 'The source of the money has always been the same. This has never been an issue and there is no basis for these allegations.'
On suggestions that the consortium might have faced funding problems, the spokeswoman said: 'We have the money. To say otherwise is baseless.'
BT understands that the completion of the sale was expected yesterday. The in-principle agreement for the deal was announced on May 8.
Fairmont Raffles Hotels International (FRHI), the owner of the landmark hotel and adjacent shopping arcade, was to have secured a very long-term management contract, reportedly for 40 years, to manage the hotel under its hotel management arm, Raffles Hotels & Resorts.
Colony Capital holds about 40 per cent in FRHI while Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's Kingdom Hotels International owns the rest.
FRHI's May 8 statement had said that similar to its past real estate transactions, any hotels sold would continue to be part of the company's hotel collection and managed under long-term management contracts. Industry observers say that this is crucial to FRHI's plans to spin off and float a hotel management arm.
'Most existing hotel groups would be reluctant to purchase a hotel with a long-term management contract from the seller. And frankly, Fairmont Raffles would jealously guard their proprietary management systems from any potential hotel owner that is also in the business,' a market watcher said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wheels come off Raffles Hotel deal
Proposed sale to consortium fails to materialise
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The proposed sale of Raffles Hotel is off.
A spokeswoman for the consortium led by former Credit Suisse banker Mark Pawley that was to have bought the Singapore icon confirmed yesterday: 'We regret to say that the sale will not be completed as planned. The consortium is very disappointed with the current outcome as we had hoped for a win-win solution involving all parties.
'This would have involved an assured distinct identity for Raffles Hotel as a flagship for Singapore in the international hospitality industry and a rejuvenation of the hotel. We will continue to actively explore other opportunities to contribute to Singapore.'
She declined to give reasons for the deal not being completed, citing confidentiality clauses. The deal was reported to have been in the range of about $650 million and would have included the adjoining shopping arcade. But when asked about talk that there might have been some issues with the source of the money for the purchase, she replied strongly: 'The source of the money has always been the same. This has never been an issue and there is no basis for these allegations.'
On suggestions that the consortium might have faced funding problems, the spokeswoman said: 'We have the money. To say otherwise is baseless.'
BT understands that the completion of the sale was expected yesterday. The in-principle agreement for the deal was announced on May 8.
Fairmont Raffles Hotels International (FRHI), the owner of the landmark hotel and adjacent shopping arcade, was to have secured a very long-term management contract, reportedly for 40 years, to manage the hotel under its hotel management arm, Raffles Hotels & Resorts.
Colony Capital holds about 40 per cent in FRHI while Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal's Kingdom Hotels International owns the rest.
FRHI's May 8 statement had said that similar to its past real estate transactions, any hotels sold would continue to be part of the company's hotel collection and managed under long-term management contracts. Industry observers say that this is crucial to FRHI's plans to spin off and float a hotel management arm.
'Most existing hotel groups would be reluctant to purchase a hotel with a long-term management contract from the seller. And frankly, Fairmont Raffles would jealously guard their proprietary management systems from any potential hotel owner that is also in the business,' a market watcher said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Govts not facing up to long-term threat of inflation: HSBC boss
Business Times - 30 May 2008
Govts not facing up to long-term threat of inflation: HSBC boss
US dragging feet, hoping inflation will help its housing market recover
By CONRAD TAN
IN HONG KONG
BROAD inflation measures are understating the long-term threat of rising prices worldwide and policymakers are not acting fast enough, said HSBC group chief executive Michael Geoghegan.
Most governments and central bankers are 'not facing up' to the danger of inflationary expectations becoming entrenched, he said. 'I think it's going to be a long-term problem because I don't think there's a long-term will to solve it.'
Faced with higher household expenses on utilities and food, workers in some countries have already demanded sharp wage increases recently, he said.
This has in turn saddled businesses with higher costs that may result in further increases in the prices of goods and services - the start of a vicious cycle that could spiral out of control.
'I do believe that to a very large degree, the inflation numbers that we see coming out of various central banks don't reflect the underlying rate of growth in household expenditure,' he said. 'It's easy to say inflation is slowing, but if costs have risen 30, 40, 50 per cent, saying inflation is slowing doesn't achieve anything.'
Mr Geoghegan, who is usually based at HSBC's headquarters in London, was speaking to a group of business leaders at a lunch organised by the Asia Society in Hong Kong earlier this week . 'In the short term, it will need an increase in interest rates and I'm not sure governments have the courage to do that. I would urge them to, because inflation not controlled is very difficult to control later and I do hope governments will face up to that.'
One reason central banks are reluctant to raise interest rates - at least in the United States - is that higher inflation would help the US housing market recover more rapidly, he said. 'In the short term that will benefit the US real estate market, because the cost of replacing homes will rise quite quickly.'
Since last September, the US Federal Reserve has slashed its key interest rate by 3.25 percentage points in a rapid succession of rate cuts to 2 per cent, in an attempt to steer the faltering US economy away from recession. Comments last week by Fed vice-chairman Donald Kohn suggested the US central bank is hoping to pause the rate cuts at its next policy meeting on June 24, but analysts do not expect rates to be raised until the end of the year, after the US presidential elections in November.
Outside the US, many central banks have also been reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of hurting their own economies that are already facing slower growth from the US downturn. 'At the moment, I don't see any real commitment to raise interest rates,' said Mr Geoghegan.
He also said that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis had exposed flaws in the way investment banks do business, which is likely to change with pressure from regulators and internal reforms. 'The idea that groups of people with no core deposit base can raise large amounts of money and take the position as banks is probably something that we'll see change over time. I think you'll find that banks will lend and investment banks will advise, but they won't do both.'
Securitisation - the business of repackaging pools of basic loans such as mortgages and credit card debt into other financial products such as collateralised debt obligations or CDOs - will change, too. 'We need a very transparent securitisation industry . . . where it's easy to understand the risk and show it to others' instead of relying on the opinions of credit rating agencies, he said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Govts not facing up to long-term threat of inflation: HSBC boss
US dragging feet, hoping inflation will help its housing market recover
By CONRAD TAN
IN HONG KONG
BROAD inflation measures are understating the long-term threat of rising prices worldwide and policymakers are not acting fast enough, said HSBC group chief executive Michael Geoghegan.
Most governments and central bankers are 'not facing up' to the danger of inflationary expectations becoming entrenched, he said. 'I think it's going to be a long-term problem because I don't think there's a long-term will to solve it.'
Faced with higher household expenses on utilities and food, workers in some countries have already demanded sharp wage increases recently, he said.
This has in turn saddled businesses with higher costs that may result in further increases in the prices of goods and services - the start of a vicious cycle that could spiral out of control.
'I do believe that to a very large degree, the inflation numbers that we see coming out of various central banks don't reflect the underlying rate of growth in household expenditure,' he said. 'It's easy to say inflation is slowing, but if costs have risen 30, 40, 50 per cent, saying inflation is slowing doesn't achieve anything.'
Mr Geoghegan, who is usually based at HSBC's headquarters in London, was speaking to a group of business leaders at a lunch organised by the Asia Society in Hong Kong earlier this week . 'In the short term, it will need an increase in interest rates and I'm not sure governments have the courage to do that. I would urge them to, because inflation not controlled is very difficult to control later and I do hope governments will face up to that.'
One reason central banks are reluctant to raise interest rates - at least in the United States - is that higher inflation would help the US housing market recover more rapidly, he said. 'In the short term that will benefit the US real estate market, because the cost of replacing homes will rise quite quickly.'
Since last September, the US Federal Reserve has slashed its key interest rate by 3.25 percentage points in a rapid succession of rate cuts to 2 per cent, in an attempt to steer the faltering US economy away from recession. Comments last week by Fed vice-chairman Donald Kohn suggested the US central bank is hoping to pause the rate cuts at its next policy meeting on June 24, but analysts do not expect rates to be raised until the end of the year, after the US presidential elections in November.
Outside the US, many central banks have also been reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of hurting their own economies that are already facing slower growth from the US downturn. 'At the moment, I don't see any real commitment to raise interest rates,' said Mr Geoghegan.
He also said that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis had exposed flaws in the way investment banks do business, which is likely to change with pressure from regulators and internal reforms. 'The idea that groups of people with no core deposit base can raise large amounts of money and take the position as banks is probably something that we'll see change over time. I think you'll find that banks will lend and investment banks will advise, but they won't do both.'
Securitisation - the business of repackaging pools of basic loans such as mortgages and credit card debt into other financial products such as collateralised debt obligations or CDOs - will change, too. 'We need a very transparent securitisation industry . . . where it's easy to understand the risk and show it to others' instead of relying on the opinions of credit rating agencies, he said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
What a difference a year makes
Business Times - 30 May 2008
What a difference a year makes
THIS time last year, the central banks of Asian countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines were trying their best to slow the US dollar's slide against their home currencies. By Tuesday this week, traders reported that at least four Asian central banks had intervened to stop the US currency from rising too fast instead.
More than one reason has been forwarded for this sharp turnaround, but the most important one has to be the stratospheric surge in oil prices. A year ago, they were trading at something like US$70 per barrel, now they are threatening to double that, or go even higher. Researchers at US investment bank Goldman Sachs, among the first to predict oil would surpass US$100 per barrel, now warn it could even reach peaks twice as high.
Over the past year, a fast-falling US dollar, rising demand and increasing speculative interest have combined in ugly fashion to boost all manner of commodity prices to one record high after another. As a result, we learned this week that Indonesia has been obliged to raise its subsidised oil prices by some 30 per cent. Taiwan is also removing oil price controls, and has announced graduated increases in the prices of oil, electricity and utilities. Both countries' central banks were among those believed to have slowed the greenback's rise against their currencies this week. In the face of such unprecedented price pressures, some obvious winners and losers have emerged in currency terms, and here's what it has appeared to come down to.
Countries with strong and growing external accounts may just have to let their currencies appreciate faster in order to deflect imported price pressures. On the other hand, those who suffer large current account deficits will have to tighten up at home if they don't want to find themselves paying more and more - in local currency terms - for food and energy imports.
In the first category, the most obvious candidates are China, Japan and the countries of the oil-rich Gulf. Far less fortunate would be countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In the case of the latter, Barclays Capital researchers have already warned of interest rate hikes over the coming quarters. For India specifically, a US$100 billion oil import bill and a sharp reversal in portfolio flows has now convinced JPMorgan researchers to raise their end-2008 target for the US dollar to 45 rupees, from 40 rupees earlier.
At the other extreme, two US investment banks recently suggested that those with fixed US dollar peg currencies - such as those in the oil-rich Gulf and Hong Kong - may have no choice but to let their currencies rise against the greenback to relieve rising price pressures at home.
At home, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has kept the trade-weighted Singapore dollar on an appreciating path to defuse imported pressures. With local inflation at a 26-year high, it's clear that's the only way to go.
EDITORIAL
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
What a difference a year makes
THIS time last year, the central banks of Asian countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines were trying their best to slow the US dollar's slide against their home currencies. By Tuesday this week, traders reported that at least four Asian central banks had intervened to stop the US currency from rising too fast instead.
More than one reason has been forwarded for this sharp turnaround, but the most important one has to be the stratospheric surge in oil prices. A year ago, they were trading at something like US$70 per barrel, now they are threatening to double that, or go even higher. Researchers at US investment bank Goldman Sachs, among the first to predict oil would surpass US$100 per barrel, now warn it could even reach peaks twice as high.
Over the past year, a fast-falling US dollar, rising demand and increasing speculative interest have combined in ugly fashion to boost all manner of commodity prices to one record high after another. As a result, we learned this week that Indonesia has been obliged to raise its subsidised oil prices by some 30 per cent. Taiwan is also removing oil price controls, and has announced graduated increases in the prices of oil, electricity and utilities. Both countries' central banks were among those believed to have slowed the greenback's rise against their currencies this week. In the face of such unprecedented price pressures, some obvious winners and losers have emerged in currency terms, and here's what it has appeared to come down to.
Countries with strong and growing external accounts may just have to let their currencies appreciate faster in order to deflect imported price pressures. On the other hand, those who suffer large current account deficits will have to tighten up at home if they don't want to find themselves paying more and more - in local currency terms - for food and energy imports.
In the first category, the most obvious candidates are China, Japan and the countries of the oil-rich Gulf. Far less fortunate would be countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In the case of the latter, Barclays Capital researchers have already warned of interest rate hikes over the coming quarters. For India specifically, a US$100 billion oil import bill and a sharp reversal in portfolio flows has now convinced JPMorgan researchers to raise their end-2008 target for the US dollar to 45 rupees, from 40 rupees earlier.
At the other extreme, two US investment banks recently suggested that those with fixed US dollar peg currencies - such as those in the oil-rich Gulf and Hong Kong - may have no choice but to let their currencies rise against the greenback to relieve rising price pressures at home.
At home, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has kept the trade-weighted Singapore dollar on an appreciating path to defuse imported pressures. With local inflation at a 26-year high, it's clear that's the only way to go.
EDITORIAL
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
HDB resale price growth expected to remain low
Business Times - 30 May 2008
HDB resale price growth expected to remain low
Moderate 4-10% growth seen for 2008: Knight Frank
By ARTHUR SIM
THE rate of price increase of Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats will further decelerate in the next six to nine months, resulting in a relatively moderate 4-10 per cent growth for the whole of 2008.
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak added: 'If the local economy were to slip into a recession in 2008, overall prices of HDB resale flats could vary between a 2 per cent contraction and a 3 per cent growth for the year.'
Knight Frank's projections are based on HDB's resale price index, which increased in Q1'08 by 3.7 per cent over the previous quarter. But Mr Mak explained that price movements in the resale market are difficult to project because data on average valuations are not available even if median prices, which is likely to include cash-over-valuation (COV), is.
As such, Mr Mak expected that median COV of all resale flats, which fell to $21,000 in Q1'08 from $22,000 in Q4'08, could continue to fall this year.
Another possible cause for lament is that potential HDB upgraders - a significant factor in private mass market housing - could disappear in sync with falling HDB resale transactions.
In Q1'08, transactions fell about 6 per cent to 6,358 units from 6,748 units in Q4'07.
Knight Frank also believed that HDB upgraders have been supporting the private secondary market, which saw 3,521 units transacted in Q4'07.
While it did not have precise numbers of HDB upgraders buying into the secondary market, it noted that in Q4'07, the greatest number of private secondary market transactions occurred in the Outside the Central Region (OCR), and was 'attributable to the HDB upgraders bracket'.
And Knight Frank believed that there could be an emerging resistance to swelling home prices.
In January, Knight Frank noted that City View @ Boon Keng, under HDB's Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS), pushed prices to $727,000 for a five-room unit. While the launch generated a lot of buzz, at end March 2008, 250 of the 714 flats available were still unsold.
'The issue that arises is the validity of the pricing of such DBSS flats. Keeping in mind that there are more of such developments proposed in places like Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Simei and Bedok, and given that they are still bound by public housing rules such as the income ceiling of buyers, one could begin to wonder about the intrinsic affordability of public housing initiatives,' Mr Mak said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
HDB resale price growth expected to remain low
Moderate 4-10% growth seen for 2008: Knight Frank
By ARTHUR SIM
THE rate of price increase of Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats will further decelerate in the next six to nine months, resulting in a relatively moderate 4-10 per cent growth for the whole of 2008.
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak added: 'If the local economy were to slip into a recession in 2008, overall prices of HDB resale flats could vary between a 2 per cent contraction and a 3 per cent growth for the year.'
Knight Frank's projections are based on HDB's resale price index, which increased in Q1'08 by 3.7 per cent over the previous quarter. But Mr Mak explained that price movements in the resale market are difficult to project because data on average valuations are not available even if median prices, which is likely to include cash-over-valuation (COV), is.
As such, Mr Mak expected that median COV of all resale flats, which fell to $21,000 in Q1'08 from $22,000 in Q4'08, could continue to fall this year.
Another possible cause for lament is that potential HDB upgraders - a significant factor in private mass market housing - could disappear in sync with falling HDB resale transactions.
In Q1'08, transactions fell about 6 per cent to 6,358 units from 6,748 units in Q4'07.
Knight Frank also believed that HDB upgraders have been supporting the private secondary market, which saw 3,521 units transacted in Q4'07.
While it did not have precise numbers of HDB upgraders buying into the secondary market, it noted that in Q4'07, the greatest number of private secondary market transactions occurred in the Outside the Central Region (OCR), and was 'attributable to the HDB upgraders bracket'.
And Knight Frank believed that there could be an emerging resistance to swelling home prices.
In January, Knight Frank noted that City View @ Boon Keng, under HDB's Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS), pushed prices to $727,000 for a five-room unit. While the launch generated a lot of buzz, at end March 2008, 250 of the 714 flats available were still unsold.
'The issue that arises is the validity of the pricing of such DBSS flats. Keeping in mind that there are more of such developments proposed in places like Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Simei and Bedok, and given that they are still bound by public housing rules such as the income ceiling of buyers, one could begin to wonder about the intrinsic affordability of public housing initiatives,' Mr Mak said.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
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